May 26, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dame Wicked | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Promise | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blueberry Shine | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Firstrate Proposal | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cape Diva | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Samurai Jean | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Our Girl Abby | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Woman of Love | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’s a Julie | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pure Praise | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classy Music | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Rose Candy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | American Alphabet | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Maryblueeyes | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kentucky Dancer | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Sugar Cube | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bella Be Proud | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smelly Cat | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kate N Abs Reward | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pour Girl | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Sharp Lady | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Ntestinalfortitude | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Malibu At Midnight | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blake’s Lucky Star | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dapper Sam | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Mono | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ford’spowerstroke | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blame Paradise | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Discreetly Firm | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Benediction | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Question | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cap’s Tale | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little B | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | P J’s Awesome | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Last Prophet | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Promise Me Freedom | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alpha Bravo | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Empire Taker | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Tempestuous Angel | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | On John | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prado’s Smokin | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Alsinaafy (IRE) | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cicerone | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Can’t Remember | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | American Sea | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Brandt Point | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Landing Gear | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jumpin Jack Cash | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silver G T O | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Malibu West | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Chocolateicecream | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Mascarpone | 5.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Where’s Lew | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lo’s Journey | 20.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cutacorner | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greeleys Charm | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Execution | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Battle Tap | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Kapellmeister | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purgenality | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Another Lemon Drop | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Halloween Horror | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | U S S Altair | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Dunk a Din | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Havana Moon | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giada Vegas | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Juno Moon | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pastime | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | American Cowgirl | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Merry Memories | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Blackberry Farm | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Street Biz | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Res Ipsa | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Choppychoppychoppy | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Annathela | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Prudence | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beauly (GB) | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lola’s the One | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Collar | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ellens Birthday | 20.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bootsy’s Girl | 15.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | My Man Kan | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Eminence | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Funny | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Demands Attention | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Twinsanity | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Harmac | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Private Party | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silver Treasure | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Providence | 1.60 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tam Tam Attack | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Southern Cross | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.