May 25, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Special Forces | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Battle At Sea | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Onejump | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Copper Bullet | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tememon | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sky Promise | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rushin Tothecircle | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Street Cat Sam | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Northern Trail | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | All Shacked Up | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heat Road | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wildwood Dancer | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Afleet Jay | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Attraction | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Due | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bootleggin | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Rilla | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hang On Annie | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Disones Pretty | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Dixie Lover | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Adieu | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stormy Rhonda | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jury Wise | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ginger Stone | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Milady Rocks | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bodie’s Valentine | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Lady Soul | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Devlishly Superior | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Awesometastic | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Leave It to Marie | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sweet Tatum | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gemoiselle | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | O T B Bob | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Nite of the Hunter | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | California Coast | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rod McLeod | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Brother Don | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aitutaki | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jack Tripp | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rage Riot | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Rocky Tough | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho Macho Bets | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 4 | Wicked Wink | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Paddy Not Patty | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 6 | Paden | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sea Rover | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Zambian | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Southern Wild | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Sabrena’s Bling | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ingadore | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 2 | Mongol G | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Curlins Vow | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Forge Ahead Franki | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shut the Box | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gray Sky | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Entertainer | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Philoctetes | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Showreel (GB) | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 3 | On My Toes | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Global Affair | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 17 | 7 | Fairybrook | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Lela’s Gift | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 6 | Front Row Debbie | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Queen Tutt | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Waltzwithmecurlin | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 5 | Perfect Fox | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Giovanna Ponti | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Hello Linda | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Lipstickonmycollar | 5.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Tiff | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cantcatchchanneled | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Love Me in Malibu | 6.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Gig Gee | 5.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Rollover Risk | 15.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.