May 21, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lou | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bill’s Wealthygirl | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tessa’s Treat | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shesellssanctuary | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Native Indy | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sky Princess | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Arch Arch Baby | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candrasa | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Five Star Nap | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Naughty Little Nun | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mizz Tutu | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greely’s Comet | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | War Union | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star Quality | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Altito | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hay Listen Up | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hardly Seen Slim | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Victor Again | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ship Disturber | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Unanonymous | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Whiskey Tree | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Johanna’s Delight | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Goods Gone West | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Moonshiner | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Turn Back Time | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Highroller Dave | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 3 | Eyesonthelady | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 4 | Hoosier Neighbor | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Indy Hill | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Diamondmaze | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Makeamericagreat | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Dewey | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Trovatore | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Unk | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 6 | Mo’s Mojo | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Kitten’s Solution | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Dig Charlie Dig | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 3 | Extricate | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | D C Nine | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Levanto (ARG) | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Spatetacular Joe | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Workingforaliving | 15.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 5 | Powerful Ally | 10.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Street Limit | 15.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Golden Domer | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Olathe | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Into Summer | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zipperini | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Factor One | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | North Princess | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Rhodium | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Enchanted Facts | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mercer Slough | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mango’s Muse | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delusional K K | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Crack Your Whip | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gotit Todo | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Sentence | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Treble | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Noelle’s Mischief | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Diamonds for Leah | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jet Away Sue | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Anythingyoucando | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Boudicea’s Revenge | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bottle Walk | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Toasted | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Laced Up | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Kiwi Cat | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | Horse Fly | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rocky Tough | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 1 | Rowdy the Warrior | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Nice Not Nice | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Sparty Boy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | Chesapeake City | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Capture the Glory | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Defense | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Karma | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Prize Fight | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Hembree | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Untimed Play | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Durango Dan | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 2 | Vibe | 15.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gorse | 10.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kid Perfect | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kiss My Note | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caniform | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Laughing Levi | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fat Daddy | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Minegold | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | British Humor | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ninth Hour | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Red Again | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cool Ambition | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Road Check | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.