May 20, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Parking Ticket | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simply Great | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Run Juja Run | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indian Trick | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Witticism | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Tapizar’s Magic | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Its a Journey | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Ritzy Lass | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | C Islandsurprise | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Merilore | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ursula Andress (BRZ) | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Baetykaty | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Burma Road | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rosie My Rosie | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sassy Little Lila | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Tipat | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lilly’s Dream | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Motown Lady | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | You Cheated | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Or Sunday | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rockstar Jam | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Manhattan Mischief | 0.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Favorite Coach | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fourth of July | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greely Is Back | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scarf It Down | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hold the Door | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arch Revenge | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gridiron Cat | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Swamp Ruler | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Calmbeforethestorm | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Valentine Rosie | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Kitten | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Talmadge Tap | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Savannah Belle | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moonlightnmidnight | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamcall | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bernadreamy | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Quiet Man | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hello People | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Bob’s Gone Wild | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Copus | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Frost Or Frippery | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ocean Alley | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Magic of Believing | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Star Dog | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Alabama Tide | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aztec Lion | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Than Shirl | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Solve | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Watch My Smoke | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fuhrious Warrior | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aurora’s Kid | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Sandstorm | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Soliloquy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | La Manta Gris | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Auntie’s the One | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Malibu Style | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Royalty | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Sola Ranger | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Ice Ice Princess | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Aircraft Carrier | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | House On the Hill | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Jaunt | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Meister Legend | 4.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Go Stellaire | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Maria Celeste | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Corona Mesa | 15.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Sable | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Matron S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Curlin’s Approval | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tiger Moth | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Fog Horn | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Lots o’ Lex | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Crooked Stick | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Improv | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Naylor | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Divine Elegance | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Weep No More | 4.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Miss Mo Kelly | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Belle Hill | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Walkabout | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shes a True Beauty | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Louisville H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Danish Dynaformer | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bullards Alley | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kaigun | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grey Wizard | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gold Shield | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twilight Eclipse | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Patrick’s Day | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reporting Star | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nessy | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Generous Kitten | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Street Fashion | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Some in Tieme (BRZ) | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.