May 18, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mo Diddley | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mugrosito | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shangroyal | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Like Richie | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Make Noise | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Red Alert | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rhyder Time | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Golden Moon | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Medal of Courage | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bad Student | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Whyruawesome | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stormy Pacific | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Purely Given | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Abboccato | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Like a Haint | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Din’s Fire | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greeley and Gold | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pop Tarts Princess | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chargers Miss | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Archarityrobbyn | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Whole Lotta Luck | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mizzing Frazier | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | K L S Forty Three | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cadillac Red | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Renvyle | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trenton Bridge | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rufeelinglucky | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | Money Flows | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 6 | Chocolate Ride | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bondurant | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Blarp | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Suddenbreakingnews | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Airoforce | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Special Ops | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Guest Suite | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 12 | Raagheb | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Flashy Chelsey | 10.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Egyptian | 6.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Silent Waters | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Heartbreak Hill | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Victory’s Secret | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In the Shoes | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grantastica | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Endless Thyme | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grace to Glory | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Coco | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cold Hearted Pearl | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 9 | Red Lodge | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Ivy Bell | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 5 | Big City Dreamin | 1.80 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Tia Flor | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Justa Lady | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | World Peace | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Like a Hurricane | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fort Marsh | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Active Runner | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Starlight Express | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Whole Scoop | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Lady Midnight | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | General’s Jewel | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Leanne N Susan | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Learning Curve | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rangers Funny Girl | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Venetian | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Greely’s Striker | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starship Aquarius | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Atruevision | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Scout It Out | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Muddle | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Chocolate Cherries | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.