May 14, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Speightful Song | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sir Douglas | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chargin Storm | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Funny Questions | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Westfest | 1.40 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | K J’s Nobility | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Enchantera | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stand and Cheer | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Junket | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Zar | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Game Over | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bodie Ramsey | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Unfading Beauty | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sales Call | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Will Wants Candy | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Inside Joke | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pluto Flight | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stormfield | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greeley and Ariana | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hollywood Handsome | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grandpa’s Dream | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Than Words | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Thought | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Daddy | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Howell Mountain | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Bluegrass Sunset | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pauline Revere | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Dane (ITY) | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brightly | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Asticou Trail | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mundy Road | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bonnie Arch | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spearette | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crafty’s Way | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Slew | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Burgameister | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | United Stand | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hard Fought | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Higher Factor | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daddy’s Placer | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Minefield | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | American Sparrow | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faction Cat | 2.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mistake Present | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Rhythm Park | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Galton | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dujac | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Go Go Rocket | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Springboard | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Noon Rider | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Silver Dagger | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | J S Bach | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | West Village | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seeking Alpha | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Blessing | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Linsanity | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Attain | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chigger Bite | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Yen | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Stone Mountain | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Harlan’s Mischief | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Candy King | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Your Way | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tarpon Bay Road | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Main Road | 3.50 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Class Won | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Latimer | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prevailing Bets | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scatter Gun | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sky My Sky | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Celestial Insight | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Mo Kelly | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Walking the Kitten | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Annabelle | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queenofthepalace (NZ) | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Knows | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Grosco (MEX) | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Prime Power | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Love Your Humor | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jifquick | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dream Seeker | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Areed | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Enlisted Man | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiree | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Iker | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sounds Divine | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kowboy Kody | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kate’s Forest | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.