May 13, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Handiwork | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Let’s Meet in Rio | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mineyerownmalone | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moon Gate Warrior | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tarpy’s Surprise | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rich Daddy | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tosha Talifero | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A Little Attitude | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Red Seven | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shea’s Cool | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Cobblestone | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Acid Rain | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond Earring | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Majestic Chivette | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bosses Money | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Neak Up On Ya | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clever Thunder | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Precisely Ponti | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Best of Tess | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Mystery | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Shine | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Curlin Kisses | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Titanium | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Taxable | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cced | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Profound Moment | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miner’s Cat | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kitten’s Gold | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Master Merion | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zip Van Winkle | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled Rebel | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Iconic | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fifth Title | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Your Way | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Teletap | 2.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Path Less Traveled | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Solution | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Shirl’s Ready | 5.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Harlan’s Dynamo | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Troublesome | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What a Star | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clever Serve | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jolly Good | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Heather Hills | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Get the Girls Out | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Meadow Gem | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lifefullofreinbows | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Colleen’s Reward | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Big Kick | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hotbutteredsoul | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Knight of Dreams | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Louies Flower | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Indy Awesome | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Copus | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Limonte | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nifty Fifty | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tales of War | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Thamaan | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alittlevodka | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dattts Our Guy | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Young American | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Star Cross | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sixty Five (FR) | 1.60 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Wraith | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Archangel Rose | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Burntwood | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Conquest Mystique | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | All Hansens Ondeck | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Red King | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Marine Pilot | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Caldera | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Power Plant | 50.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Alpha Bravo | 30.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Golden Amber | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rehearsed | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Olathe | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Thirteen Songs | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Domonette | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Curvymissmiller | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Star Quest | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Darlin’issues | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Na Pali Spirit | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Girl Link | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Unbridled Sidney Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Nobody’s Fault | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Super Saks | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Angel Roan | 50.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Her Love for Pappy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Triple Chelsea | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Boom Bam Bing | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clairenation | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 4.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frosty Friday | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Melaleuca | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lajatico (GB) | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hickory Island | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sevenheartswarrior | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beltway | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Refractive | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | How’s My Bud | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Safe Passage | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Doctor Lee | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Guilty Streak | 4.50 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Little Sarge | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cowboy Quinn | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Promises to Keep | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dreammeister | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Our Gordie | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.