May 12, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hot Yankee | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gingermore | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wilhelmina | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love My Life | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kate N Abs Reward | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crack Your Whip | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dustem Carolina | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Dancer | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sugar Cube | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Be Proud | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Smelly Cat | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seems a Fortune | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rose to Glory | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucy’s Revenge | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Tigerbeach | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zodacious | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gritter Man | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dr Spaulding | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Bullet Bandit | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Cannonshot | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Northern Trail | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miguel | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Crossfire | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Recount | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Black Bear | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wilbo | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hebbronville | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bayerd | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bordini | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | High Multiple | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Enduring Honor | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elitch | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eiteljorg | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Philan | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Memorial Blue | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speedy A. P. | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little B | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Lucky Number One’s | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Sugar | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Street Performer | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Reward’s Girl | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nobody’s Angel | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twinkles | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ice Freeze | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Indy’s Finesse | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Imallaboutthatbass | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gagaoveryou | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tizahandful | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Katalust | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fiesta | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Dixie Twister | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Precious Love | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tricky One | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Dan the Go to Man | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Harlan Punch | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kismet’s Heels | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forge Ahead Franki | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Gray Sky | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Philoctetes | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | More Than Words | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Race Me Home (IRE) | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Big Red Rocket | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Starship Zeus | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Drago’s Pearl | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Summer O Fiftyfour | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cedarville | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pitch Count | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Swordfish | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Big Mo | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tempestuously | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Silver G T O | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Chocolateicecream | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Gordie | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | To the King | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bowman West | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.