May 4, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shamelessfi | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Firstrate Proposal | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Directioner | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cyclone Betty | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Bride | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Archarityrobbyn | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Santinzo | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Heat Road | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Jay | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rockstar Jam | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Patriotic American | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharm | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sky Wonder | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Timido | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Michaelslittleally | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Heavenly Daze | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pemba | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blaze Star | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greely’s Comet | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mia Bella Rossa | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Regalya | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Johnny U | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Moon | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cha Mono | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Freud | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mellow Fellow | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morning Buzz | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Small Fortune | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fleet Gold Digger | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Showreel (GB) | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Peloncillo | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keep Your Distance | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Darion’s Dream | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dame Fortune | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zipperini | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | On Board | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Simply Great | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bird Street | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frigidish | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Valentine Wish | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Emma | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Midnight Crossing (IRE) | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Giada Vegas | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Squeeze | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | American Cowgirl | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Sonic Cyster | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Wolf Gourmet | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Be My Baby | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | What’s In A Kiss (IRE) | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Asscher | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Wessex | 3.50 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Toasted | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Talmadge Tap | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Prudence | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Ellens Birthday | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Bootsy’s Girl | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Deadly Ruler | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tough Stuff | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Heavy Roller | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tapster | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Perplexed | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Providence | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Telling You Twice | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Cash Money Always | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Disciplinaryaction | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lookin for a Kiss | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blaze’n Prospector | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mayor Mac | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Seeking the Soul | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Izzy the Warrior | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Homespun Hero | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Tarpys Zapper | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Control Stake | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Luna de Loco | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sharp Art | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Opening Verse Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Monster Bea | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Money Flows | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Taketothestreets | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Hootenanny | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 6 | Western Reserve | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | One Mean Man | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Pleuven (FR) | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trust Factor | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Shakhimat | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Thatcher Street | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Take the Stand (ARG) | 3.50 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Black Sea (FR) | 4.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dimension (GB) | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kentucky Juvenile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Just Be Frank | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | McErin | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chateau | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Baytown Lex | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Buy Sell Hold | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Happy Like a Fool | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Amberspatriot | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Trickizar | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Waki Patriot | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Go Chiva Go | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Miss Shawhan | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Brightly | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Maximus Beauty | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 4 | Harkness | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pauline Revere | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Red Dane (ITY) | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Asticou Trail | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Miss Malibu Style | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Looks Super | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Wholehearted | 3.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 2 | Union Way | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | My Bright Idea | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Crafty’s Way | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Stealing Holly | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 5 | Bernadreamy | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kitten’s Slew | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.