May 3, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Full Heart | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Confederate Rags | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wild Man | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sharp Game | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Ranger | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brendas Conquest | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Juliet Foxtrot | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Kentucky Dancer | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Por Favor | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | One Sharp Lady | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Native Indy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sky Princess | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Starship Aquarius | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dixie Lover | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Greely’s Striker | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jury Wise | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cherokee Callie | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Extraordinary | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Equulei | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Doxology | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Connect | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Improv | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clair de Lune | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sea Cloud | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One True Kiss | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Beachtown Benny | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Deep Explorer | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bud’s Mr. B | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Joey B | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeleys Charm | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Running Back | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | P J’s Awesome | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Shezaprado | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rum Go | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Summertime Sky | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jay Wow | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fault | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | On Her Honor | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’m Indy Havin Fun | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Milady Rocks | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gata Furiosa | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Kay | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’m With Miller | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fairybrook | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blackberry Farm | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Gal | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ordonnee | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Woodmans Luck | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ring Necked | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crooked as Can Be | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Plug Catcher | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lamu | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lieutenant Seany O | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jack Tripp | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spinning for Home | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rage Riot | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Speight Swiftly | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dan the Go to Man | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | One of a Kind | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Kasseopia (GB) | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thomas Point | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dawn Raider | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ft Davis | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Derby Champagne | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Paden | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Marksman | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Ramsey | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Calmbeforethestorm | 5.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Sea Rover | 10.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chantmeupbaby | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Arodg | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Uno Mas Brandy | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kid Perfect | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | McPherson | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tarpys Zip | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Because It’s Time | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Awesome Fu | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jacob Sings | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vagabond Prince | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chilling Secret | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Giovante | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Diamond Drill | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.