May 2, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pontual | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Shot | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hello People | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kate N Abs Reward | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arctic Slope | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Hawk | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Be Playful | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Its a Journey | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Maryblueeyes | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | C Islandsurprise | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Reimburse | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Qualifying | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Smelly Cat | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Zeta Zody | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rose to Glory | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Put Da Blame On Me | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Five Star Factor | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Constance | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Annathela | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ivy Bell | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maximum Edge | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Doll Face | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Anythingyoucando | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arch Arch Baby | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sealed With a Kiss | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seeking Bull | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bottle Walk | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jokasa | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Haynesome | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Long On Luck | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | His Royal Majesty | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Summer O Fiftyfour | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pitch Count | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Minegold | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alsinaafy (IRE) | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Victor Again | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Condominium | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mykonos | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Bluegrass Fields | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gray Ransom | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Another Source | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aztec Sense | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Conquest Hiosilver | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Wink | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hellofaguy | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Costa Mesa | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cataroux | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Last Prophet | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Northern Ranger | 20.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Galilea | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Maria | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lou | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shifty Kitten | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Scatmeifucan | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Pride | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Avisionofchocolate | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harlan’s Rose | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Leeloo’s Journey | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Mamacita | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | She Mabee Wild | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crooked Stick | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alotta Skirt | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rosie My Rosie | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apologynotaccepted | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Theophilia | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Conquest Skedaddle | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Saturday Fun | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Live Round | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Out of the Office | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Tell a Friend | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scalpel Please | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Logistical | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Assaulter | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | My Boy Lane | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mizzing Frazier | 3.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Ambition | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Walker’s Way | 3.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Proudly High | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Malibu West | 6.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Awesome Mil | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Buzzkillington | 20.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.