April 29, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 3 | Halloween Horror | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rocky Tough | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Midnight Oak | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Write in Candidate | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Durango Dan | 1.40 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Speedy A. P. | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Kielbasa | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Victory’s Secret | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Ide Better Move | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Heartbreak Hill | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stella Nova | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Grantastica | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Forever Fara | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Clever Thunder | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heavenly Shine | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Attraction | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bingo Kitten | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perpetrator | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mambo At the Gym | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Ready to Roll | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | U S S Altair | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Kayla’s Kitten | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Under the Table | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Finley’sluckycharm | 0.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1A | 3 | Mayla | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carolina Jasmine | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Athena | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pleasant Tales | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kathballu | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maziette | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bipartisan | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bob’s Gone Wild | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sky Alert | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Frost Or Frippery | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ted’s Folly | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stratocruiser | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Star Dog | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ellio | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Full Clip | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sounds Divine | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rous | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gold Hawk | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Pleasant Empire | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Minegold | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Pitch Count | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | His Royal Majesty | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Laughing Levi | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Chesapeake City | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Harangue | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hay Listen Up | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Red Again | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hardly Seen Slim | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Barry’s Swing | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Roustabout | 4.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | John’s Legacy | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curlino | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jive Daddy | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Happens | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rod McLeod | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Brother Don | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Twirling Cinnamon | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carouse | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Catanova | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aurora’s Kid | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Promise of Spring | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Din’s Fire | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shar Ran | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Sheltowee’s Point | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Kentucky | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gemsaresparkling | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Madison Kat | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Heather Hills | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Invention | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dulua Kaiu | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Karmic Destiny | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bombona | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parking Ticket | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eloquent Moment | 10.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Summer Sable | 15.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – William Walker S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | En Hanse | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conquest Wildcat | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Silver Bullion | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Money Monster | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Classic Cotton | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Syndergaard | 0.80 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Capture the Glory | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Proven Warrior | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Restless Rambler | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hotbutteredsoul | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Aztec Lion | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jifquick | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Almost English | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Turn Back Time | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tiree | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Utmost Intensity | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Shamelessfi | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 8 | Endless Thyme | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Chocolate Bouquet | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 16 | 10 | Nobody’s Angel | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Greeley and Gold | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Twinkles | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Abboccato | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Ilvermorny | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Pop Tarts Princess | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Cheatin Heart | 5.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Fire Fly | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Imallaboutthatbass | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Dial M for Mugs | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Indy’s Finesse | 10.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Santinzo | 30.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 7 | Chargers Miss | 20.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.