April 15, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Take Your Guns | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Will | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Van Horn | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Leading Cause | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Drago’s Pearl | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Combat Controller | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Ballantine | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Insurgent | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Swift One | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mykonos | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alittlevodka | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | No Phone Joe | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Olivia’s Brother | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hurricane Force | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heliodoro | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Not So Quiet Man | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dos Cuernos | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Right Thing | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Curlin Kisses | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Sugar Cone | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Abundant Flurry | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Love the Kitten | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Niki | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Audacious Angel | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Precious Love | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Queen’s Princess | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tasteful | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dreamadreamforme | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Connected Fitness | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Bonnie | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bemus Point | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rocket Girl | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Darlin’issues | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shoyoya | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eloquent Moment | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colleen’s Reward | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smokin Ash | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eastport | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Society Beau | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nice Not Nice | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Musical America | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Foolish Beau | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Upper Room | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Than Words | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pagliacci | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Confederate | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Perro Rojo | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Southside Warrior | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Belomor | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Tasit | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luck of the Kitten | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Navy Go | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Finnegan (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Approvethismessage | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Decisive Edge | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Vici | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Hockey School | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Forge (GB) | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zennor | 4.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aquaphobia | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiz Shea D | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Revved Up | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Long Ago | 20.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ben Ali S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bird Song | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eagle | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Enforcer | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Scuba | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taketothestreets | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blofeld | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Watershed | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Frammento | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Giant’s Causeway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Pretty Perfection | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Super Saks | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Notion | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lady Aurelia | 1.20 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lots o’ Lex | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Come to Mischief | 50.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Triple Chelsea | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miss Katie Mae (IRE) | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exaggerated | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nobody’s Fault | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rapid Rhythm | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Marquee Cal Gal | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Lajatico (GB) | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bibby | 30.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Stonestreet Lexington S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | West Coast | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Souper Tapit | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Convict Pike | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Dozing | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | He’s Munnie | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Capt. Grider | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Senior Investment | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lookin At Blessing | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Resiliency | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Time to Travel | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Coolmore Jenny Wiley S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Time and Motion | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Illuminant | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Eli | 1.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Roar | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quidura (GB) | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Goodyearforroses (IRE) | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dickinson | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catch a Glimpse | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gulf Front | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Makealittlelove | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thirteen Songs | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Distortress | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vigor | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Vicki | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tango Rose | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jolly Good | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sheplaysthefield | 4.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bombona | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enchanting Embrace | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On a Mission | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.