April 14, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Art Imitates Life | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Sailin’ Shoes | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Young American | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Bluegrass Gem | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kayla’s Kitten | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Fleetway | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rough Sea | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Super Touch | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rarest Quality | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just the Facts | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | British Humor | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Hot Chile | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amigo’s Affair | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Welovecandy | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Timido | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jokasa | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blaze Star | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A Dixie Twister | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Neuqua | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Cold Hearted Pearl | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ola Gatita | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Giada Vegas | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tricky Escape | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Naylor | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Res Ipsa | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wessex | 1.60 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Awesome Song | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Qualifying | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cause Ioya | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Love On Tides | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pour Girl | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bootsy’s Girl | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Kick | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lieutenant Seany O | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cause I’m Alex | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aesop | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ferocious Tiger (FR) | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cinque | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Copus | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Arctic Slope | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aye Skipper | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Harkness | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Analyze | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Access Code | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moana | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ladrona | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mostly Awesome | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wholehearted | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gold Serenade | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Sunset | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 12 | Chiringuita | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Shaan (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Salty Breeze | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Eqho | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Trophy Girl | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Princess Princess | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Inchargeofme (GB) | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Tapper | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | B Rockett | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vagabond Princess | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Antonoe | 4.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Burma Road | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Shes a True Beauty | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gone Away | 10.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Motown Lady | 10.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Make It Maria | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Curlins Vow | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scarf It Down | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lex Vegas | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Star Hill | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speightful Song | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Red Rocket | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Promote | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starship Zeus | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southwest Trail | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Maker’s 46 Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Heart to Heart | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Western Reserve | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bolo | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Conquest Enforcer | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Conquest Panthera | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Calculator | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Inspector Lynley | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bondurant | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blacktype (FR) | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What a View | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Patriot | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ballagh Rocks | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Partner | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Borsa Vento | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Higher Factor | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Burgameister | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Last Stage | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Twinsanity | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Heartwood | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Mines Made Up | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Maquina Gris | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stone Mountain | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Coal Front | 3.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Prevailing Bets | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Commander’s Castle | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Watch Me Whip | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Unauthorized Use | 50.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | To the King | 20.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.