April 12, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bangle | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Jersey Town Cat | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | McErin | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gritter Man | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’m Corfu | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Chiva Go | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Indian Interpreter | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Crossfire | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Active Runner | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Bottle Walk | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Alta Rita | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Frank E | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Me Lucky You | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Native Indy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | High Multiple | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lo’s Journey | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chill Phil | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | So Random | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Luther D | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Frontliner | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maximus Dan | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Howlin Mad Smith | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brunerstown | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Auntie’s the One | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kupuri | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Empressof the Nile | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Agent Provocateur | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Union Way | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Secede | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | House On the Hill | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Violet Blue | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Meister Legend | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bernadreamy | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady Shackleford | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dorodansa | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | D’oro Paradise | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cced | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Twirl Girl | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Factory of Faith | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Walkabout | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bella Be Proud | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miner’s Cat | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Longwing Lily | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Our Stormin Norman | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Excitations | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | B Rod Maclean | 50.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Diamond Jim | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Shadow Tracer | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stapleton | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Ceejay’s Mister | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Awesome Saturday | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Dilettante | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | No Mo Dough | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Too Awesome | 4.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Fulkerson | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Alasaal | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Morse Code | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Cortege | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Commend | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Championofjustice | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Remembering Mickey | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Southern Wild | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Downey | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kasseopia (GB) | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Mystique | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Derby Champagne | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Ramsey | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Costa Mesa | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gio’s Calling | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Masterofthehouse | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Seine River | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Harlons Commision | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Overhold | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Doll Face | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Peloncillo | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dona Elba | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sales Call | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Flatter Chatter | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Awesometastic | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Bird Street | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blackberry Farm | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Marnie Star | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Diamond | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Myth of Wealth | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunny Sonata | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Truly Brilliant | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Dial M for Mugs | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.