Arsenal's Form Could be Trouble for the Rest of the EPL

I’m going to take a deep breath and reluctantly admit something I really, really don’t like saying out loud, let alone put in writing. Arsenal is playing very high quality football. Following their opening day loss at home to Liverpool, Arsenal has cruised to a 6-2-0 record across all competitions. Aside from their nil-nil draw at Leicester, Arsene and Co. steamrolled through their last 5 league matches outscoring their opponents 12-3. The Gunners 3-0 thrashing of Chelsea forced an exasperated Antonio Conte to admit that perhaps his team is only good on paper. Arsenal is also showing signs of dominance in the UCL where they’re currently tied first place with PSG, having already played PSG in Paris.

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Arsenal’s current form is meaningless if they can’t capitalize on their October schedule. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the most difficult match Arsenal has in their next seven matches is away at Ludogorets. Seriously, look at this schedule. Their fixtures include Burnley, Swansea, Ludogorets twice, Boro, Reading, and Sunderland. Two of these teams are likely to be relegated, one already plays in the championship, and Boro and Swansea currently sit 16th and 17th, respectively. With a schedule like this, Arsene needs to get his team in the mindset that they can have a perfect October.

A schedule like this begs the question; would a perfect October even matter? Real Madrid, Atletico, and Barcelona beat up on weaker competition all year. The winner of La Liga rarely wins by more than 3 points, making games between these three teams crucial for title aspirations. The Premier League is not quite as top heavy as La Liga, but Arsenal has had trouble against top competition in the past.

A flawless October would instill confidence that has been ever so lacking across previous years at Emirates. Looking back on Conte’s comments, I sense he realizes his job at Chelsea is bigger than he anticipated. He’s gauging his team against a solid Arsenal squad, but Arsenal is by no means the best group of players in the premier league. Yet, we see it time and time again that a solid squad with loads of confidence can beat the best squad that money can buy in any given week (see: Leicester last year).

The beating heart of Arsenal is the trio of Walcott, Ozil, and Sanchez. On the stat sheet, the three have combined for half of Arsenal’s goals this year, but one of these three is involved in the build up to almost every Arsenal goal. How far Arsenal goes will rely heavily on the form of these three attacking threats, with a particular emphasis on Ozil. Arsene has viable backups to Sanchez and Walcott in Lucas Perez and the duo of Oxalade-Chamberlain/Alex Iwobi. What he doesn’t have is a replacement who can play behind Sanchez with anywhere near the crossing ability or creativity as Ozil. In form, Ozil is simply the best playmaker in the Premier League.

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Arsenal fans love to point to lack “luck” when their season is falling apart. Last year they finished second despite having an injury plagued season. The recent injury to Francis Coquelin opens the door for Arsenal’s 3rd most expensive signing ever, Granit Xhaka, who up until this point in the season had inexplicably been left out of the starting line up in most league fixtures. Francis Coquelin has zero goals in 114 appearances for Arsenal. Granit Xhaka has two goals in eight appearances. Luck may be favoring the Gunners.

This month will define if Arsenal is truly a title contending team or one that looks slightly different than the old Arsenal, but produces the same result. Arsene has done a great job of not necessarily signing big names, but signing experienced depth in every third of the field. Hell, he could even alternate between goalies (and he does). If all goes well this October, Arsenal will be able to rebrand themselves as something that they have not been considered for a long time; winners. Winning leads to confidence and whether it’s the premier league or champions league, a confident Arsenal is dangerous for any opponent.