This week starts the group stage for the 2016-2017 version of the UEFA Champions League competition. Let’s take a look at the various groups and preview some of the match-ups.
Group A – Paris Saint Germain, Arsenal, Basel, Ludogorets
At first glance: Arsenal and PSG should have no problem advancing, right?
Do the minnows stand a chance? Yes. Basel has already opened a nine point advantage through a mere seven games in the Swiss league. In fact if you rank the clubs by the coefficients assigned by UEFA, Basel would fall 15th which is good enough to be in pot 2, not pot 3 where they are in the current seeding format. Basel has had recent success against English competition in the Champions league group stage, beating Chelsea in 2014 and Liverpool in 2015. PSG has already been lackluster domestically this season and I see them struggling to find their identity in the post Zlatan era.
Projected Finish: Arsenal, Basel, PSG (Europa), Ludogorets
Group B – Benfica, Napoli, Dynamo Kyiv, Bestikas
At first glance: With all due respect to Benfica, we’re certain this isn’t a Europa League group?
Do the minnows stand a chance? No. Benfica proved they can play with the big boys in the knockout stages last campaign by giving Bayern a run for their money in the round of 8. That same Benfica squad went onto to win the highly competitive Portuguese Liga. Napoli seems to be coping with life after Gonzalo, averaging three goals a game in Serie A. Ultimately these two squads are experienced enough to advance in the easiest group in the competition.
Projected Finish: Benfica, Napoli, Kyiv (Europa), Bestikas
Group C – Barcelona, Manchester City, Gladbach, Celtic
At first glance: Was there ever any doubt Pep would play one or more of his old squads?
Do the minnows stand a chance? Emphatic no. This is one of the more difficult pairing of teams from pots A and B. Gladbach is already having issues domestically, coming off a loss to newly promoted Freiburg. Celtic and newly named coach Brandon Rodgers barely eked by the Israeli league champions in the qualifying round. All things considered, do we really need to justify why Barcelona and City will advance? The predictability of football at times doesn’t make it any less enjoyable.
Projected Finish: Barcelona, City, Gladbach (Europa), Celtic
Group D – Bayern, Atletico Madrid, PSV, FC Rostov
At first glance: Pep left, but I’m sure the players on Bayern are looking for some revenge against Atletico.
Do the minnows stand a chance? Emphatic no. I lied, this is the most difficult pairing of two squads from pots A and B. This group highlights everything that’s wrong with the way teams are placed in their respective pots. By UEFA’s own club coefficients Atletico is the fourth best team in the world yet because they had an “off” year (third in La Liga, runners up in the UCL on penalties) they were placed in pot 2. Their reward is a home and away with Bayern Munich which will more likely than not leave them in second place after the group stages meaning they’ll play a tougher opponent in the round of 16. Since pot 1 is reserved for the previous UCL champions and the champions of the seven leagues with the highest country coefficient, teams like CSKA Moscow and Leicester City get an easier path than teams like Atletico Madrid who have a proven record of success in European competition. Remind me why the champions pot make sense? As far as the non-sharks, Rostov dismantled Ajax to gain their place in the UCL group stage which makes me think they should be able to compete with Ajax’s rival, PSV.
Projected Finish: Bayern, Atletico, Rostov (Europa), PSV
Group E – Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen, Tottenham, CSKA Moscow
At first glance: Did Tottenham get to hand pick their group?
Do the minnows stand a chance? Technically Tottenham and Monaco are the minnows (by pot placement) of this group. If you were to combine the teams from pots A and B, two of the bottom three teams are CSKA Moscow and Bayer Leverkusen. The other team is Leicester whom Tottenham is precluded from playing in the group stage. Spurs have their dream draw, now the onus will solely be on them to perform. I expect some tight matches in this group, especially during away trips to Moscow. The winner of this group could have as little as 10 points.
Projected Finish: Tottenham, Monaco, Bayer (Europa), Moscow
Group F – Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Sporting CP, Legia Warszawa
At first glance: It’s tough being a Dortmund supporter
Do the minnows stand a chance? No. It’s a tough draw for Sporting who only lost two domestic games last year despite finishing in second place. Qualifying started in July for the Polish Champions, Legia, and they barely made it winning 1-0 on aggregate against the Slovakian champions AS Trencin in the final qualifying round. For those interested, Dortmund ranks 8th in club coefficient making the above argument for Atletico’s pot misplacement applicable for them as well. Regardless, Real and Dortmund are simply bigger and better clubs.
Projected Finish: Real Madrid, Dortmund, Sporting (Europa), Legia
Group G- Leicester, Porto, Club Brugge, FC Kobenhaven
At first glance: The premier league really lucked out this year.
Do the minnows stand a chance? No. Porto has a ton of European experience and should have no problem winning this group. Leicester is having a tough start to season with two losses in four matches; the most recent of which was a terrible defensive display against Liverpool. I still think Leicester has the squad and determination to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. There’s no better stage to do that than the Champions League. Ironically the most important game of the group stage, this Wednesday against a Brugge side who will challenge for second place, will be the one Leicester is the least prepared for. With zero UCL experience under their belt, will Leicester exhibit caution or seize the opportunity? Hopefully we see the latter.
Projected Finish: Porto, Leicester, Brugge, Kobenhaven
Group H- Juventus, Sevilla, Lyon, Dinamo Zagreb
At first glance: Will Sevilla tank for a shot at the Europa league in order to go for the four-pete?!
Do the minnows stand a chance? No. When the season began, I wanted to like Lyon. I knew OL finished second behind PSG, earning them their automatic spot in the group stage. They won their first two games 3-0 and 2-0 with Alexandre Lacazette, who finished second in scoring behind Zlatan last year, scoring all five goals. Then they lost their next two games by two goals apiece and I realized Lyon is simply too inconsistent to get a result in Turin or Seville. Zagreb could make things interesting in group H by winning one or two games away (they did beat Arsenal last year after all), but overall I don’t see them gaining enough points to advance.
Projected winner: Juventus, Sevilla, Lyon (Europa), Zagreb