We have barely a month of regular season baseball left. Normally we’d have several division races to look forward to in September. Outside of the AL East, this year isn’t producing that much divisional drama. Instead, as intended when the second Wild Card was implemented, the Wild Card races in each league are ramped up in intensity. A .500 team in August no longer has to close up shop and think about next year. Between the two leagues, nearly half of the sport’s clubs are within five games of those coveted final playoff places. But while the AL has always been tight, the NL is just getting to that point. Five teams are jockeying for two spots, and none are looking able to put the others away for good.
In my opening, I failed to mention the NL West as a legitimate division race for a reason. While the Dodgers aren’t blowing away the Giants out west, it is almost a given that the loser of that duel is getting a Wild Card spot. Both teams have stacked rotations and lineups. Each are well equipped in getting to the postseason in the late stages of the year. It will take a miraculous overtaking to knock either club out of the playoff party altogether.
But the second Wild Card is when the fun really kicks in for the senior circuit. Four teams find themselves clustered in, two each from the NL East and NL Central. Each team has their warts, which makes this race so tough to call, even with just the four teams.
The Cardinals are well, the Cardinals. They are always in this position every year, yet it is still surprising they recovered from their rocky start so well. The Cards boast the third most potent office in the National League. Seung Hwan Oh has replaced the deposed Trevor Rosenthal and become one of the more dependable closers in the NL. The rotation’s overall numbers look brutal still, but they are beginning to round into form at just the right time, save the perplexing woes of Adam Wainwright. Top pitching prospect Alex Reyes is a bonus to either the rotation or the pen, and the Cardinals may be the team to beat. Their biggest weakness could a strength as a second Wild Card. St. Louis is 29-35 at home. Road games in the playoffs may actually suit them.
Pittsburgh came into 2016 with equally lofty expectations as NL Central brethren Chicago and St. Louis. Nevertheless, the Pirates find themselves clinging to their playoff hopes with not many positives to speak of. They traded closer Mark Melancon to the Nationals. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco have been good, but not enough to make up for a career-worst season from former MVP Andrew McCutchen. Though only with a small sample size, rookie hurler Jameson Taillon is the lone bright spot in the rotation. But still they are only 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card, and manager Clint Hurdle has worked that late season magic before with both the Rockies and Pirates.
The real wild card, pun incredibly intended, in this foursome is Miami. They’ve lost Dee Gordon for over half the season. Giancarlo Stanton won’t play another game in 2016. Their bullpen has gone through several drastic restructurings this year. But Don Mattingly has this team playing to their full potential, something that wasn’t entirely anticipated entering this year. Jose Fernandez leads the second stingiest pitching staff among Wild Card challengers in terms of runs allowed. The 24 year old has been the figurehead of a rotation in constant flux. He hit some bumps in August, but his staffmates didn’t let their ace’s losses turn into lengthy losing streaks. This is a fearless team, and those are always dangerous in a postseason push.
The Mets used to have that fearlessness as well. However, last year’s World Series runners-up have lost that swagger in 2016. Their pitching is still some of the league’s best, but it has been under constant siege with season ending injuries to Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler compounded by nagging ailments for Steven Matz, Jon Niese, and Noah Syndergaard. The offense has been just as ravaged, and even with Yoenis Cespedes’ recent return, are only a few runs ahead of the Phillies and Braves for worst offense in the entire sport. New York is the longest shot to qualify, but they made people look foolish last year at similar odds. I wouldn’t put it past them to do it again.
When you look at each team’s schedule, the only ground the teams get to make up against each other is in the division. New York just took two out of three from the Cardinals, but their only games against direct competitors in this race is a pair of three games series with the Miami. The same goes for Pittsburgh and St. Louis who play each other six more times over the final 30 or so games. The Mets and Marlins last meeting comes in each team’s second to last series of the year, but New York gets Philadelphia in their final three while Miami goes to Washington. The Cardinals and Pirates finish the season against one another in St. Louis.
Looking over everything, I’ll take the Giants and Mets as my two Wild Cards in the National League. As I said before, the first slot is for the NL West runner-up. Matt Moore near no-no aside, I think the Dodgers are still winning that division. As for the Mets candidacy, they have by far the easiest schedule through September. Multiple games with Philadelphia and Atlanta, as well as three game tilts with the Reds and Twins make them a tough team to pass up.
So who do you think is getting in from the National League? Leave your two Wild Card teams in the comments or let us know on Twitter @sportsftb. You can also ridicule my picks @TREVORutley.