The Calvin Johnson era is over in Detroit. Johnson had another pro bowl season at age 30 but decided to retire rather than continue his career. The struggle here is that the Lions turned the corner down the stretch last season, winning 6 of their last eight to finish the season 7-9. But now the Lions have an 88 catch, 1,214 yard season to replace.
Can the offense be less predictable without Johnson? Watch any Lions game, and you know that Johnson received the majority of looks from Matthew Stafford. There were plenty of plays where Stafford would force the ball into triple coverage because he was throwing it to Calvin. The deeper stats, however, show that it was not just Johnson. Calvin, Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron, and Golden Tate were the target on 75% of Stafford’s passes last season. No other receiver had more than 43 targets in 2015. And that was Lance Moore, who isn’t even on the team in 2016. Tate has been promoted to the #1 receiver, and Marvin Jones was signed from Cincinnati to be the new #2 WR. Jones caught 65 balls for 816 yards last year, and could be helpful to this offense, but he is not Calvin Johnson.
No other offensive upgrades Detroit is not going to turn to a running team without Johnson either. The same two headed monster rushing attack of Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah are in the backfield. Theo Riddick will never be an every down back because he cannot handle the pounding, but he will be on the field a ton catching pass after pass out of the backfield.
Youth Movement on defense? The Lions made five selections on the defensive side of the ball in April. Unfortunately, none of the selections have even cracked third on the depth chart yet in the Preseason. So the defense will likely be as porous as it was last year, when it gave up 400 points. With the passing attack that Green Bay will bring to town and the rushing attack in Minnesota, the Lions need a full defensive overhaul to compete in the NFC North
Fantasy Focus Stafford is a tricky one here. His numbers on the surface look great. Over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns. The Lions are going to throw and throw a lot, and plenty of his interceptions in the past were due to forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson. He could be a nice sleeper this season. Golden Tate is an undervalued stud. He was terrific in 2014 while Johnson was hurt and posted another solid season last year. He will outperform his draft position. As will Theo Riddick. He’s someone you should target if you are in a PPR league. Riddick caught 80 balls last year for just under 700 yards. He is good for an almost 10 point base every week just with his 6 catches for 40 yards.
Prediction There’s no miracle run in the second half looming this year. The Lions are going to struggle and struggle hard. 5-11.