Juventus completed the signing of Gonzalo Higuain from Napoli SSC on Tuesday in a deal that ranks as the third most expensive transfer of all time (at least until the reacquisition of Juventus’ own Paul Pogba by Manchester United is complete). The Higuain transfer brings the Old Lady’s summer spending over €140 million. Regardless of whether the Pogba sale will make up a majority of the summer expenditures, the question must be asked: did Juventus put themselves in a better position to compete against top European competition by spending an estimated €90 million on Higuain?
Higuain brings a lot of experience to Juventus. Since joining Serie A three years ago, he’s averaged a ridiculous .68 goals per game over 104 games. Higuain knows the expectations of a big club having spent seven years at Real Madrid — and after five Serie A championships, five domestic cups, and a runner up in the champions league in the last five years alone, Juventus has redefined itself as a big club.
More importantly, though, Juventus needs goals. Their current options for striker are a talented but young Paulo Dybala, an aging Mario Mandzukic, and this guy. They finished third in scoring in Serie A despite winning the league by nine points and only averaged a goal a game in the Champions League group stage, despite being in a relatively easy group with Manchester City, Sevilla, and Borussia Mochengladbach. Higuain will likely bring scoring to goal deprived club. But how likely?
For starters, Higuain is a center forward joining a team that primarily plays a 4-4-2. This will either force the striker to adapt to the team or cause Allegri to play some form of a 4-3-3. Given the amount of money Juventus has spent to acquire Higuain, they are likely to push natural forwards (Dybala, Mandzukic) to more outside positions. Dybala is young and can likely provide pace on the wing. Even though he led Juventus in scoring last campaign, he’ll likely see less of the ball in dangerous areas in a system where he’s pushed further outside.
Second, Higuain will be 29 by the time he steps on the field for Juventus. “Old” age does not preclude success, but an injury to the €90 million investment would be devastating for Juventus’ offensive production and whatever value is assigned to Higuain at the end of this five year contract.
Perhaps the most concerning issue doesn’t concern Higuain at all. Juventus lost to Barcelona 3-1 in the champions league final two years ago and 6-4 on aggregate against Bayern Munich in last years’ campaign. While losing to Bayern or Barcelona is nothing to be ashamed of, a normally airtight defense averaging 3.5 goals against in elimination games is concerning. The average age of the Juventus defense (30.13) increased with the free transfer of Dani Alves, leaving you to wonder if this current unit will ever be capable of performing against a Suarez-Messi-Neymar or any combination of skilled attacking players Bayern could field.
If simply preparing for Pogba’s departure was the goal, then Juventus has accomplished that by signing the creative, free kick specialist Miralem Pjanic, Marko Pjaca, and Higuain. However a €90 million purchase suggests the club wants more than domestic domination.
Gonzalo is undoubtedly one of the best center forwards in the world, but this year is shaping up to be a different attacking unit with the same defensive issues. Perhaps bolstering the defensive core will be the focus of the January window. If not, expect a round of 8 exit for the champions of Italy.