Welcome to the 2016 NFL Preview. Every weekday from now until opening night, we will preview the 2016 NFL Season. This week’s remaining schedule: Jacksonville (Friday).
It’s time for the non-homer preview of the Dallas Cowboys. I say non-homer because the previews released already all paint the Cowboys with the same brush. A very optimistic brush. These are the points to remember:
The NFC East is terrible
Tony Romo is no longer hurt
Ezekiel Elliot is going to run for 3,000 yards, win the Rookie of the Year, and set the NFL record book on fire
So why bother even playing the season?
The Cowboys defense is bad To combat that, Dallas tries to run the ball and control the clock. The total yards allowed are right in the NFL average, but the Cowboys allowed those yards in 991 plays. A 5.6 average per play. In addition, Dallas only forced 11 turnovers (lowest in the league) and had 31 sacks (tied for 26th). So clearly Dallas’ spent the offseason trying to fix these problems right?
Wrong. None of the 2016 draft class is expected to start on the defensive side of the ball. Second round pick Jaylon Smith was out for the season on draft day. Third round pick Maliek Collins and fourth round pick Charles Tapper are fighting for snaps in camp. Last year’s sack leader, Demarcus Lawrence, is suspended for the first four games of the season for a substance abuse policy violation. Second leading sacker Greg Hardy is thankfully out of the league. Rolando McClain is suspended for 10 games, and Randy Gregory is out for at least four and is not reporting to camp so he can check into rehab instead. A terrible defense did nothing to get better, and it can be argued that it’ now even worse.
Tony Romo is 36 There is no doubting Romo’s athletic ability. He is a terrific quarterback when healthy. Last year was his worst year, as he only started four games. He has broken his collarbone on multiple occasions, and has been dealing with a back issue for three seasons now. He is not a beacon of health, and as we learned last year, the Cowboys are nothing if Romo is hurt.
Elliot might be suspended too Elliot is currently under investigation for domestic violence, as his ex-girlfriend posted Instagram photos of an alleged incident. This could turn out to be nothing, but it’s not a great start for the rookie.
Fantasy Focus Tony Romo is the key to the entire Cowboys season. Both in the NFL and in your fantasy football league. In games Romo did not start, Dez Bryant’s stat line was 22 catches, 208 yards, and 2 touchdowns. That was in seven games. Without Romo, Bryant isn’t even worth starting in your league. So remember that when you are thinking of drafting Dez early.
Elliot is also a fantasy darling, being projected as a first round pick already. Pump the brakes on that. Darren McFadden is also there, as well as free agent Alfred Morris. I am not saying either of them will outperform Elliot (they won’t) but they will eat into his touches. The predicted average is 1,200 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. Exactly ZERO running backs had that kind of production last year. So I highly doubt these projections are going to hit. Let someone else pay the high price and move on.
Jason Witten falls into the same boat as Dez. Draft him late as an upside play if Romo is healthy, but he’s a waste if anyone else is under center.
Prediction This pick is based on Tony Romo being healthy. If he is out for an extended stretch, it will be another 4 win team like last year. If he can stay upright, Dallas will definitely be in the hunt for the NFC East crown. It will not be a cakewalk though, and it could very well come down to the end of the year. 9-7