Being a Cubs fan is a soul crushing experience. The faint whispering of “Here we go again” must be constantly ringing in their head. The 2016 North Siders were supposed to be different. This was the year that Chicagoans had been waiting for for over a century. They have the offense. They have the pitching. But somehow, the club stumbled into the All-Star Break losing nine of their last eleven games. They are 6-14 in their last 20 games. The latest poor run included a pair of losses to the Pirates and Reds, leaving their once commanding lead in the division at single digits. Cubs fans are feeling a sense of deja vu, but they should pump the brakes with their cynicism.
This team didn’t put seven players in the All-Star Game by accident. While a couple made it on affiliation, they are still a supremely talented bunch, quite possibly the most so in the National League. Their entire starting staff possess ERA’s under 4.00. The bullpen has four men with WHIP’s under 1.00. Their lineup, 1 to 9, isn’t any less stacked than it was before.
The Cubs schedule coming out of the break probably isn’t going to help ease the stress on their fans. The Rangers and Mets both come to Wrigley for a trio of games. The Rangers are currently the best team in the AL, while the Mets hold the second Wild Card spot in the NL. They haven’t played Texas yet, but are 0-4 against the Mets. However, those Rangers entered the break through a rough patch of their own, losing seven of ten. The Mets will get Noah Syndergaard back for the series, but are still littered with injuries and question marks.
The Mets brought an end to a similar stretch of bad form last year. Also about this time, the Cubs were nearly back at .500 after losing five straight in which they scored a total of six runs. A sweep of the Mets helped to right the ship considerably and they went into the second half with renewed confidence. They would go 50-24 the second half of 2015.
That total could be even higher this season if you look at their schedule. The Cubs have played just 40 games at home thus far, the lowest total in the National League. Joe Maddon’s men are 26-14 in those contests. Having over half their games in the friendly confines in the second half will help swing the tide.
The Cubs have two extended road trips in the second half. One is a west coast swing against the Rockies, Padres, and Dodgers. They’ve fared the best against the Dodgers, but the Rockies and Padres are two of the many under .500 teams left on Chicago’s slate. The other comes in September five days after the waiver trade deadline. The Brewers open that part of the schedule, and could very well have a gutted roster by that point. The Astros and Cardinals are on the uptick now. But they could easily revert back to their poor early season form by that point in the calendar.
Jake Arrieta, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, saw his ERA jump nearly a full point over his final three starts going into the break. He gave up 15 runs in 16 1/3 innings as he struggled for consistency and control. But Arrieta has shown throughout his career, including most notably last year, that he is a second half pitcher. His career ERA in the second half is 3.07, down from 3.86 in the first. His WHIP drops from 1.23 to 1.07. Last year those figures were 0.75 and 0.73 respectively as he won 12 of his 15 starts.
Fellow MVP candidate Kris Bryant is also a “second half guy”, albeit with only a one year sample size. His slugging percentage and extra base hits total were up in the second half of his rookie season. He’ll also take full advantage of the extra home games. Bryant’s splits between home and away games last year was eye opening. He slugged nearly .300 better at Wrigley than on the road. He’s actually doing better on the road this season, but his track record, especially in the second half, in the Cubs home park should breed optimism.
The bullpen is a bit tattered right now due to overuse and ill-fitting parts, but help could be on the way. Internally, the Cubs have both Brian Matusz and Joe Nathan down on the farm. Both have had their ups and downs in recent years, but they each have postseason experience and late game credits. Trade talk for Aroldis Chapman and/or Andrew Miller from New York is constantly ongoing. One thing is for certain, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer won’t let this unit be a weakness for detractors to point a finger of blame at come October.
Now this is the point where the cynics come out to say how last season ended. They’ll drive home the disappointment felt by the loss to those Mets in the NLCS that kept their World Series exile alive. But the fact they got that far after being bad for so long is the step in the right direction Cubs fans were clamoring for. While worst to first stories are more prevalent than ever in today’s sporting landscape, most reclamation projects take time. This year a trip to the World Series could be that next step. The deja vu feeling felt by fans and players alike is easy to feel. But with this team, that sinking feeling should no longer be at the surface.