It has been ten league games now since Crystal Palace last won. Since that 2-1 win away at Stoke on December 19th, Palace have scored six goals and conceded a staggeringly bad nineteen. They have drawn three and lost seven of their last ten league match days, leading manager Alan Pardew to concede that his side are being sucked into the annual relegation dogfight. After the aforementioned win at Stoke, Palace were in 6th and level on points with both Tottenham and Manchester United. Now? They have plummeted to 14th and sit just eight points above the drop zone. Many have begun to question just exactly where it went wrong for a side that seemed to be primed for a run at the European places at the turn of the year but it isn’t quite clear.
At the beginning of this torrid run, the goals dried up for a side that was 7th in the league in terms of goals scored after seventeen games. After their defeat to West Brom on the weekend, thirteen sides have now scored more than Palace. They were shut out of five consecutive league games following their last win against Bournemouth, Swansea, Chelsea, Aston Villa (wow) and Manchester City respectively. Since then, they have scored six in their last five games but that hasn’t led to an uptick in results. Statistically, Palace have an expected goals total of 33.53, which is quite some distance above their actual output of 29. Still, their expected goals is right in the middle of the pack compared to the other teams in the league. The problem is that thirteen teams have higher expected assist totals than them which suggests a team that is highly reliant on shots from distance and dribblers being able to weave their way into the box for solo goals. Indeed, when you look at Palace’s comparative data between expected goals and assists, they shoot well and hit the target at an above average rate, but are squarely below average in terms of the quality of chances they create.
So it seems, then, that signing Emmanuel Adebayor was not the answer to their offensive struggles. Despite the lack of goalscoring upfront (their top scorers this season are Yohan Cabaye and Scott Dann with five apiece), Palace more than anything need a player who can create better chances for the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie. Both players have expected goal efficiency ratings comparable to the likes of Harry Kane, Olivier Giroud and Diego Costa. But their shots on target totals are far less. This is in part because Palace are a more defensive minded team than Tottenham, Arsenal or Chelsea, but some of it is also down to the fact that Palace don’t really have a player effective at finding those pockets of space between the defense and midfield and playing in the wingers and forwards in prime areas for better goalscoring opportunities. It says a lot about the situation at Palace that their top assist man in the Premier League is Connor Wickham, who plays the no.9 role, with a grand total of… three.
Yet for all their offensive issues, the most worrying numbers for Palace remain on the defensive side of things. They have conceded more than half of their total goals this season within the last ten games. Despite this horrible run of form, Palace’s expected goals against is still 7th best in the league. The problem is that in reality, ten teams have conceded fewer than they have. This statistic becomes all the more worrisome when you consider that before this ten match nightmare began, only three teams in the entire league had conceded fewer than Palace’s sixteen. So how have they gone from being one of the best defenses in the division to exceedingly sub par? Injury and suspension issues have certainly played their part on both ends of the pitch with the likes of Bolasie, Wickham, Jason Puncheon, Bakary Sako and Dwight Gayle missing time on the attacking side of things, while midfielders Cabaye, Joe Ledley and James McArthur have also missed time recently. Yet, Pape Souare’s recent suspension for a sending off against Watford notwithstanding, their core defenders haven’t missed much time. Souare, Dann, Martin Kelly and Joel Ward all have at least twenty starts each. So the issue has to be one of a lack of protection in midfield, which certainly points to the injury problems being a factor.
The goals have begun to return for Palace as their injury issues have lessened in recent times, but defensively they were still shocking against West Brom on the weekend and that was with both Cabaye and Ledley returning to the starting lineup in midfield. Palace will be boosted by the news that McArthur won’t miss the rest of the season as initially feared but Pardew still has to solve the defensive frailties that his side still face. Palace are 15th in the league in terms of expected assists against which means they are allowing teams chances in prime areas at an alarming rate.
Therein lies Palace’s biggest issue but it perhaps comes back around to their lack of playmaking ability. Not every team can play like Leicester and get away with it. It’s all very well to say you’re going to cede possession and play on the counter but it is a style that requires complete togetherness and team cohesion. Injury issues can destroy this and I think we’ve certainly seen this as the case with Palace. As the injury bug hit and replacements came in for the first choice lineup, results nosedived. Perhaps if they had a solid no.10 to step in and allow them to play a more attacking, possession-oriented style they might have been able to get more out of the closer games they have had against teams that played defensively and invited Palace to break them down (*cough… Villa… *cough cough… Swansea…). If they can get the first choice team back out on the pitch soon, I still like Palace to stay up, but if injury problems persist, then Pardew and company had better devise a plan B.