Romelu Lukaku is quite good at football. Even casual observers of Everton matches are normally quick to point out the massive Belgian leading the line for the Toffees. With 21 goals in all competitions to this point in the season including 16 in the league, the 22-year-old has already taken up residence as one of the most feared frontmen in England. But this was always the expectation for Lukaku from the moment he set foot in England as a newly minted Chelsea player. He spent 4 years in the employ of the West London club, two of which he was out on loan at West Brom and Everton in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively. In those two years he scored 32 league goals as a 19/20-year-old. So it was more than a little surprising that in the summer of 2014, Jose Mourinho allowed him to leave the capital on a permanent, £28 million ($39.1 million) transfer to Merseyside. That deal looks all the more strange with the benefit of hindsight given that Diego Costa, the man Chelsea signed that summer to be their main striker, has scored the same number of league goals as Lukaku in the last two seasons, yet Lukaku is five years Costa’s junior and has six more strikes than the Chelsea hitman this year.
Yes it seems that Everton’s young striking phenom is beginning to live up to his vast potential, but as the club sit 11th in the table, this should provide them equal parts optimism and worry. Everton should be better than they have been to date. They have a squad boasting some of the most exciting young players in the Premier League. Lukaku, John Stones, Ross Barkley and Gerard Deulofeu make up a terrifying young core surrounded by stalwart veterans such as Leighton Baines, Phil Jagielka, James McCarthy, Gareth Barry and Kevin Mirallas. In Roberto Martinez’ first season at the helm, Everton managed a 5th place finish with each of their young stars playing key roles in the team. Last year saw them come crashing all the way back down to 11th, however and this season has seen more of the same. The Toffees were able to hang on to Stones in the summer despite overtures from Chelsea, but can they really expect the likes of Stones and Lukaku to stick around after a second consecutive mid-table finish? At some point these youngsters are going to want to play in the Champions League and it’s looking increasingly unlikely that they will get that at Goodison Park.
Of course, a player of Lukaku’s calibre coming off a season such as the one he is having isn’t going to be cheap. However, I don’t really see the price tag being a problem for the Premier League’s elite. I know it hasn’t received much publicity at all but you may have heard that the league just signed on for a massive new TV deal beginning next season that is set to rake in over £5 billion (just under $7 billion) in domestic rights alone (Considering NBC Sports signed on for a six year, $1 billion contract last summer the total figure including international TV deals is closer to £10 billion or nearly $14 billion over the next three years, and that figure will only rise once the BT and Sky deals come up for renewal.) What all of this means is that the big boys in England are likely all monitoring Lukaku very closely. So let’s take a look at where he would fit in best:
Lukaku’s former club Chelsea are unlikely to be in the mix given the nature of his exit and the fact that Diego Costa is still at the club. There have also been reports that Gonzalo Higuain may arrive at Stamford Bridge in the summer, which further reduces the need for a striker. Jose Mourinho is no longer the manager, but Chelsea will also be devoid of continental football next season, making them a very unlikely candidate.
Manchester City are undergoing a regime change in the summer when Lord Pep rolls into town. Guardiola will almost certainly have a gigantic transfer budget to work with and a definite will to put his own stamp on the squad but it seems unlikely that Lukaku would be a part of that plan. For all the work that City’s squad needs, striker is the one position where they are fairly well stocked. Sergio Aguero is the undisputed first choice but beyond him, Wilfried Bony and promising youngster Kelechi Iheanacho have provided more than capable reserves when the Argentine has been unavailable. The likely departure of Yaya Toure in the summer, the age of the center midfield and fullbacks, and the continued defensive struggles that have occurred when Vincent Kompany is out mean that City have many more pressing needs than up front.
It seems almost certain that City’s cross town rivals will be undergoing a change of manager in the summer as well. Who that manager is could well determine United’s interest in Lukaku. The main issue is that the manager that looks most likely to replace Louis van Gaal is none other than Jose Mourinho. Lukaku insists Mourinho was not responsible for his Chelsea exit but upon his departure the Portuguese was quoted as saying “the thinking [behind allowing the transfer] was first of all the fact that Romelu was always very clear with us that in his mentality and his approach he was not highly motivated to come to a competitive situation at Chelsea. He wanted to play for Chelsea but clearly as the first choice striker which in a club of our dimension is very difficult to promise to a player of that status.” If Mourinho couldn’t give him those assurances at Chelsea, why would he be able to give them at United? Lukaku is a better player now than he was two years ago, but he would still be in constant competition with Wayne Rooney and Anthony Martial for his place in the side and playing for a manager that considered him expendable once before. United could also be without Champions League football next season, and that plus Mourinho could be a hammer blow to their chances of getting the Belgian.
Arsenal are probably the only other English club that could convince Lukaku to part ways with Merseyside and they also might be the best fit for him. Coming in, he would undoubtedly be the top dog up front and would have Mesut Özil, Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla and co. creating chances for him. Arsene Wenger has never quite seemed fully comfortable with Olivier Giroud as his main center forward, judging by his past attempts to sign Luis Suarez, Gonzalo Higuain and reportedly Karim Benzema as well. Wenger also appears to prefer Danny Welbeck and Theo Walcott as wide forwards rather than playing them through the middle, Walcott’s brief prior spells as the spearhead notwithstanding. Arsenal have struggled with profligacy in front of goal for spells in each of the last three seasons, Lukaku is the second top scorer in the Premier League this season and has struck 57 goals in all competitions over the past two and a half years. Arsenal are also likely to be back in the Champions League next season and could be the defending champions by that point as well. So if Lukaku is to call it a day at Goodison Park this summer, North London may well be the most sensible landing spot for him.