Kansas City has built a reputation over the past few years of defying expectations. In 2014, they transformed themselves from one of baseball’s resident punching bags into a playoff team. They followed that up by making their first World Series appearance since 1985. They proved their legitimacy the next year by returning to the Fall Classic. This time though they won it. Now they look to become the first repeat champions since the Yankees at the turn of the millennium. One would think that such a period of success would make them favorites entering 2016. You would be wrong. I guess this is just another opportunity for the Royals to prove us all wrong again.
The Royals not only find themselves as fifth choice in the American League for the World Series, according to the Westgate Sportsbook in Las Vegas, but they aren’t even the top option in their division. Houston (10-1), Boston (12-1), New York (14-1), Toronto (14-1), and Cleveland (16-1) are all ahead of the two time defending AL champs. Now it seems odd that a team with the same general core of players would be so overlooked, but KC has had some notable defections this winter.
Johnny Cueto, picked up at the deadline last year from Cincinnati, is now in San Francisco. Ben Zobrist, also a deadline acquisition from Oakland, will now ply his trade in Chicago. Both teams also possess better odds in the eyes of the betting public than the Royals. This would normally be used as “bulletin board material” by most clubs, but Kansas City is way beyond that at this point. Even as the top dogs they are still the underdogs. And quite frankly, they would probably prefer to keep it that way.
While their losses will loom large, the Royals made sure that one player wasn’t going anywhere. Though his waiting until January to sign sent the rumor mills into full tilt, very few felt that there was any other landing spot for outfielder Alex Gordon. The four time Gold Glover battled injuries for the majority of last season, missing 58 games in total. However, he was on the field when it mattered most and was clutch as could be. His game-tying, ninth inning jack against Jeurys Familia in Game 1 of the World Series set the tone for what would be a string of late game heroics by the club. Given the climate of the free agent market this winter, $18m a season over 4 years was a small price to pay.
Gordon’s return once again makes the Royals one of the best defensive teams in the league. Now positioning and technique on defense don’t sell tickets, but they do win games. And between Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Jarrod Dyson, they provide plenty of flash along with the fundamentals. Add in an infield boasting three Gold Glovers themselves (Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar), and even a slightly diminished pitching staff is going to get plenty of help.
But speaking of the pitching, while the loss of Cueto, as well as that of primary middle innings guy Ryan Madson, will hurt, the Royals have retooled admirably. Ian Kennedy will slot in as second or third starter, depending on how Spring Training shakes out. While GM Dayton Moore may have overpaid the 31 year old (5 years, $70m) to get him to Kansas City, Kennedy is a proven innings eater and former 20 game winner. Neither of those resume bullet points come cheap in this day and age.
The bullpen is getting a makeover too. Gone are closer Greg Holland and the aforementioned Madson, and in is former Royals stopper Joakim Soria. While Soria’s first rodeo in KC ended unceremoniously, a career renaissance has made him a valuable bullpen commodity once again. He’ll be one of the set-up men for the new closer who has been arguably THE best set-up man in all of baseball the past two years. Wade Davis was 17-3 with a 0.97 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9 over the past two years as the Royals eighth inning specialist. He finished in the Top 10 of AL Cy Young voting both years. He was an All-Star last year and even garnered MVP votes. Soria, Luke Hochevar, and Kelvin Herrera will now be the feeders to him. Outside of maybe the Yankees, there is no more ferocious bullpen than the Royals.
So can the Royals repeat? That is a question that is not easily answered. All the folks who make a living off of prognostication say that they can’t. But the truest question of them all is, would you feel safe in betting against them?