There was so much hope for the future of the New Orleans Pelicans coming into this season. Even the usual uncertainty that follows a coaching change was met with overwhelming optimism as Monty Williams gave way to Alvin Gentry. And while Gentry was supposed to improve the middling offense, the vaunted hiring of associate head coach Darren Erman was supposed to shore up a defense that had ranked 20th in points allowed last season.
Much was made of the fact that Gentry, in his interview with New Orleans, had produced detailed charts illustrating how the team should be using it’s superstar forward, Anthony Davis, arguing that he knew how to get the best out of the Kentucky product. Couple all of that with a young roster coming off it’s first playoff appearance since Davis entered the league and you can easily see why many had the Pelicans as a bubble team primed to make a leap.
What has ensued is a disaster. Sitting at 20-33, 6.5 games back of the 8th seeded Jazz, leaves the team with an extremely low probability of returning to the postseason. The immediate reflex would be to point to the early season raft of injuries that plagued the team on their way to an awful 1-11 start. They have virtually played .500 ball since that point and as players like Tyreke Evans, Norris Cole and Quincy Pondexter returned to the lineup, performances began to improve. (Though Pondexter went down for the season at the end of January.) Injuries were obviously a problem to begin with, but New Orleans is dealing with a relatively healthy group at this point and still hasn’t been able to put it all together to claw their way back into the playoff hunt.
Part of the problem is likely the adjustment of players to a new system. While there has been some offensive improvement, it has been marginal to date. Last season the Pelicans averaged 99.4 points per game and shot 45.7% from the floor with a 37% clip on 3 pointers. This year, their PPG average has jumped up to 102.1 thanks to Gentry’s higher paced system that places more emphasis on getting out in transition, but efficiency has dropped. They have shot 44.7% from the floor and 35.5% from deep. While the Pelicans are scoring more, this is down to volume rather than efficiency seeing as they average just over 3 field goal attempts per game this season than they did in 2014/15. Efficiency tends to be a product of time spent in a system so perhaps we will see an uptick in New Orleans’ fortunes as time goes by.
Defensively, last season New Orleans was 11th in the league in terms of points allowed. But they allowed the joint highest field goal percentage of any team in the top 15 PPG defenses at a 45.6% clip. Comparatively they were much better at defending the 3 point shot, only allowing opponents to shoot 33.5% from deep. This year, however, their defense has plummeted across the board. The Pelicans allow 105.1 PPG, 46.2% opposing FG percentage, and a horrendous 37.2% from deep, a mark that is the 4th worst in the league. Darren Erman came to New Orleans with a big reputation thanks to his work with the Celtics and Warriors but to date, his defensive system has failed to sink in with the Pelicans’ young roster. Again, this could be down to a lack of time spent in the system, Erman worked in Golden State for four years before their defense really began to shine (and he was subsequently fired for violating company policy).
One thing that can be learned from examples such as Golden State or Oklahoma City is that young teams need time to grow together. The issue for New Orleans is that outside of Davis, none of their core players are that young. Evans is 26, Jrue Holiday is 25, Ryan Anderson is 27. These are all guys approaching what you would normally consider their peak years surrounding arguably the best under-25 player in the league, and they are not close to the playoffs as currently configured. This has to be a concern for the organization going forward.
There are positives, however. While this season has not gone according to plan, the Pelicans will likely end up with a decent position in this year’s draft, meaning they could acquire another young piece to pair with Davis (a good wing along the lines of Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield or Jaylen Brown could do wonders for this team). And let’s not forget that thanks to his contract extension signed in the offseason, the Pelicans have Davis locked down for the foreseeable future. Adding another young stud to their core, coupled with a full year of experience under their belts in coach Gentry’s system is cause for optimism… for next year.
It’s a little too late for New Orleans to salvage the wreckage of this season but if they are able to draft a good running mate for Davis then this could be something of a blessing in disguise. No doubt the players and coaches would have wanted a return to the playoffs but drafting a player in the mold of those mentioned puts the team in a stronger position long term.
This, then, has to go down as a transitional season for the Pelicans. The expectations that faced them going into the season were perhaps unrealistic. Had their injury luck at the beginning of the season been a little better we might have been telling a different story, but even that seems unlikely. Hovering around the .500 mark all year as opposed after the injury issues started to subside would still only have them scraping into the playoffs as an 8 seed. This way Gentry and Erman get another young piece and another offseason to implement their plans. And with the salary cap set to soar going into next season perhaps general manager Dell Demps can land some help through free agency. Either way, despite falling tragically short of expectations this season, there is still cause for hope in New Orleans.