Make no mistake, Danny Welbeck’s last gasp winner in front of the Emirates Stadium faithful to beat table-topping Leicester was a seismic moment. A draw or a defeat would have seen Arsenal’s title challenge treading on extremely thin ice. Especially as North London rivals Tottenham continued their stellar form with a win over Manchester City at the Etihad. And if Arsenal do end up winning the Premier League, many will no doubt point to Sunday’s result as a turning point in their season. Yet one can’t help but feel that perhaps that goal glossed over the fact that Arsenal should have been out of sight by that point in the game.
Prior to Danny Simpson’s 54th minute sending off, we had witnessed a fairly even match that had played out as most had expected. Arsenal dominated possession and probed at Leicester’s back line. Leicester looked to sit deep, break up Arsenal’s passing moves and break quickly and incisively. Prior to the 54th minute, the shot count was 7-5 in favor of the home side, but Leicester had put 3 on target to Arsenal’s none. That includes Jamie Vardy’s penalty to put the Foxes in front. Despite the fact that a clear foul by Wes Morgan on Mesut Özil, ignored by referee Martin Atkinson, directly led to the breakaway that resulted in that spot kick, Leicester were decent value for their lead at the half. They had made Petr Cech work while Kasper Schmeichel had only watched shots missing the target.
Obviously, Leicester going down to ten men drastically altered the complexion of the game. Arsenal produced 17 shots to Leicester’s 2 after that point but could only manage 6 on target, scoring twice. They created chance after chance despite the away side’s resolute defending. There was Aaron Ramsey’s miss on the half volley from 12 yards in the 74th minute. There was Alexis Sanchez failing to make proper contact from right around the penalty spot having been picked out well by Theo Walcott in the 79th. There was Per Mertesacker putting a point blank header wide from Özil’s delicious cross in the 85th. There was Schmeichel’s save from Olivier Giroud 10 yards out in the 87th. These are just a few of the examples of Arsenal’s wastefulness in front of goal. Walcott’s 70th minute equalizer notwithstanding, Arsenal could not find the back of the net for love nor money.
It says something about this Arsenal team and their current form that they could not find a winner out of such dominance until the game’s final seconds. Their attack has hit a barren spell that is still cause for concern heading into the final 10 games of the season. Before Sunday, Walcott hadn’t scored since Arsenal’s 2-1 win over Man City on December 21st. Ramsey and Giroud have both failed to find the net since the 3-3 draw away to Liverpool on January 13th. Sanchez hasn’t scored in his last 3 games. It was perhaps fitting then that, in amongst all of Arsenal’s out of form stars, the man to secure all 3 points for Arsenal had missed the entire season to date through injury. The collective joy and relief at Welbeck’s 95th minute winner was palpable even through a television screen. The former Manchester United forward came on as a substitute to a rapturous reception and even had a half chance blocked by Wes Morgan in the build up to his goal. Arsenal’s injury problems have been well documented but they have perhaps missed Welbeck more than most recently as both primary center forward options, Walcott and Giroud, have struggled for form. Welbeck’s mobility and work rate could have made a huge difference in the matches against Chelsea, Stoke and Southampton, where the Gunners failed to break the deadlock.
Welbeck has a habit of popping up to score important goals, the winner against his old club at Old Trafford in last year’s FA Cup immediately springs to mind, so his return to the Arsenal first team couldn’t have come at a better time. But they still need the rest of their attacking cohort to rediscover their form and soon. Tottenham are flying at the moment and picked up an enormous 3 points away to Man City mere hours after the drama at the Emirates. Leicester, despite the defeat, are still two points clear at the top and have possibly the best run in of any of the top 4 having played all of their matches against their title rivals.
So there is very little margin for error for Arsenal. While their defensive performances have improved in recent times, only to be further helped by the return of Francis Coquelin, their attack really has to start performing more ruthlessly. Opta has their expected goals for the season at 51, yet they have only scored 41. They create more big chances (73 on the season so far) than anyone else in the league, but their conversion rate on those chances is a pedestrian 34% compared to the 42% average of the other top 7 teams. If Arsenal are to secure their first Premier League title since the Invincibles of 2004, they have to get more efficient in front of goal. The drama of what we saw on Sunday made for fantastic viewing, but champions can’t rely on those type of moments game in game out.
These sorts of statistics can help point out where a team needs to improve to meet certain goals, however statistics cannot account for the emotional impact of such a result. Perhaps the wave of euphoria from that match will galvanize an Arsenal side that has been producing flat performances for most of the new year. Perhaps the shock of it all will stun Leicester out of their fairy tale season the way that similar defeats have done for the likes of Liverpool in 2013/14 following their defeat to Chelsea and indeed Arsenal themselves back in 2007/08 when they collapsed against Birmingham after Eduardo’s horrendous leg break. The psychological impact of these types of games is hard to predict. Which is part of what will make these final 12 match days all the more compelling.