Rex Ryan’s career regular season record as an NFL head coach sits at a less-than-mediocre 51-55.[1] Given the amount of credit—not to mention his $5.5 million-per-year salary [2]—and attention he’s given by NFL analysts, that should be surprising. If you listened to the Bills-Patriots game on Monday Night Football, you’d have thought Ryan’s Bills were the ’85 Bears, whose Buddy Ryan-led defense tore up the NFL en route to a Super Bowl XX win.
But then again, the misdirection of credit is a staple of Rex and Rob Ryan, both inductees—egregiously so— into Southwestern Oklahoma State University’s (their alma mater) Hall of Fame. They were called “standouts” despite little to no statistical evidence to back it up. Neither were even All-Conference in their time at SWOSU.[3] I wondered…would Rex be in SWOSU’s Hall of Fame, would he even be an NFL coach, let alone a head coach, if his father weren’t Buddy?
When both Rex and Rob showed no interest in regular nine-to-five jobs after graduating from SWOSU, in 1987, Buddy lined up coaching gigs for each—Rex at Eastern Kentucky and Rob at Western Kentucky[4]. By 1994, Buddy Ryan was named the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, and gifted his two sons their first NFL coaching jobs; Rex was named the defensive line/linebackers coach at age 32. (Quite a bump from the defensive coordinator position at Morehead State, considering that the team went 18-29 from 1990-1993 in Rex’s four seasons.[5])
“Nobody said anything about nepotism when we had the best defense in the league that first year,” Rex said in a 2010 New York Times piece about his Arizona hiring.[6] However, the 1994 Arizona defense finished 4th in points allowed, 3rd in total yards allowed, but did have the 4th most takeaways in the NFL.[7] Not exactly “the best defense in the league,” but Rex has never been one for exactitude.
When Buddy was fired in 1995, Rex returned to college coaching—as the defensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bearcats in 1996 and 1997, and then the Oklahoma Sooners in 1998—before the NFL came calling again.[8; all collegiate statistics in this graf from the aforementioned source] Even in college, Ryan’s defensive record isn’t all that impressive: the 1996 Bearcats were 6-5 and finished 45th out of 111 schools in points allowed per game; while the 1997 Bearcats finished 8-4 and won the Humanitarian Bowl, they were 50th in points allowed per game and the 1998 5-6 Oklahoma Sooners finished 23rd in the same category. (Fun fact, 1998 was the last season Bob Stoops wasn’t Oklahoma’s head coach and, if the Sooners make a 2015 bowl game, he’ll have led them to bowls in 16 consecutive seasons.)
A dive into Rex Ryan’s NFL coaching career reveals that, despite obvious nepotism (not that nepotism isn’t rampant in NFL coaching), the apple falls far from the tree—it might not even be in the same orchard, in fact.
Following Rex’s unimpressive stints at Cincinnati and Oklahoma, and after a month as the defensive coordinator at Kansas State, he was named the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive line coach in 1999 and held the position until 2004. Though Rex is often given credit for the 2000 Ravens team that set a record for least points allowed per game in NFL history—and is often called one of the most dominant defenses of all-time—Marvin Lewis was the Ravens’ defensive coordinator at the time. It wasn’t until the 2005 season Rex became the Ravens’ defensive coordinator so we’ll start there.[9; all statistics henceforth were gleaned from ESPN.com NFL statistic databases, unless noted otherwise]
In 2005, the Ravens finished 6-10, missing the playoffs. That being said, Rex’s defense finished 5th in total defense and yards allowed per game, and 10th in points allowed per game. The 2006 season was a huge jump: a 13-3 finish, regular season champions of the AFC North, with a playoff loss in the AFC Divisional Round to the eventual Super Bowl Champion, Peyton Manning-led Colts; the Ravens finished 1st in total defense, yards allowed per game, points allowed per game (an amazing 12.6, 2.2 points ahead of the second-place Patriots) and 2nd in rush yards allowed per game. Not bad for Rex’s first two years in charge of a defense—credit is given where credit is due.
That being said, the 2007 Ravens’ defensive stat line is troubling: The 5-11 Ravens finished 6th in total defense (4,825 yards) and total yards allowed per game (301.6), and 2nd in rush yards allowed per game (79.3)—but were 20th in pass yards allowed per game (222.3) and tied for 22nd in points allowed per game (24.0).
The 2008 Ravens season was where Rex’s “defensive guru” reputation was cemented due to “Assistant Head Coach” being added to his title. The Ravens went 11-5 in John Harbaugh’s first season as head coach, and would win two playoff games before a heartbreaking, five-turnover loss in the AFC Championship to the eventual Super Bowl Champion (and division rival) Pittsburgh Steelers—their third loss of the season to the Steelers. Rex’s defense was 2nd in total defense and total yards allowed per game, and 3rd in rush yards and points allowed per game. The success of Ryan’s defenses had made him a bonafide head coaching candidate.
In his three seasons as head coach of the New York Jets, Eric Mangini went 23-25 and was fired one day after the 2008 season ended. Weeks later, Ryan was hired to replace him.
Ryan’s defensive tallies were inconsistent, and he’d never overseen an offense—was he ready for a head coaching gig in one of the world’s biggest sports markets? He thought so. Gunslinger Rex was all-in, unleashing behemoth promises of Super Bowl victories upon Jets fans, who were parched for success. Jets Nation (myself included) drank the Kool-Aid.
For a while, the swagger worked. The 2009 Jets defense was legendary (less than 100 yards rushing allowed eight times): 1st in overall defense, points, passing yards, and total yards allowed per game—252.3, a baffling 32.1 yards ahead of the 2nd place Packers—not to mention 8th in rushing yards allowed per game. However, the Mark Sanchez-hampered Jets clocked in at 20th in total offense, giveaways, and yards per game, 17th in points per game, but were 1st in rushing with 2,756 yards. All told, the 9-7 Jets squeaked through two nail-biter playoff games en route to a scorching 30-17 AFC Championship loss to the Colts, wherein they let up 461 yards of total offense. The 2010 Jets defense wasn’t as dominant, but was still top-five, while the offense improved to 11th, thanks to a more efficient year from Sanchez.
But that’s where the fun stops for Ryan, who would go 26-38 in his next four years as the Jets head coach, missing the playoffs each year.[10; all statistics in this graf and the subsequent graf are from the URL cited] From 2009-2014, the Jets passing offense was in the bottom half of the league in nearly every passing statistic—this is typical of a Rex Ryan offense. The 2009 and 2010 Jets rushing offenses were dominant, but from 2011-2013, the Jets would place 22nd, 12th, and 6th in total rushing yardage. When coupled with abysmal passing offenses, no fruit was yielded.
But what’s surprising about Ryan’s tenure in New York isn’t the poor offense…it’s the death of his previously heralded defensive schemes after those first two years. From 2011-2014, the Jets would finish 20th, 20th, 19th, and 24th in points allowed per game and 5th, 8th, 11th, and 6th in total defense, respectively. The 2013 and 2014 Jets were second-to-last and last in takeaways, respectively. When you add in Ryan’s off-the-field antics—there are too many to count, from his ridiculous behavior on Hard Knocks, to the foot fetish scandal, to the tattoo of his wife wearing a Sanchez jersey—to on-field failure, Ryan had to go.
After signing a five-year deal with the Buffalo Bills this past offseason, Rex sits at second place in the AFC East, at 5-5 (ahead of the Jets on head-to-head). According to FiveThirtyEight, the Bills have a 31% chance of making the playoffs,[11] with the streaking Chiefs (71% chance) and Texans (43%) up next, all fighting for an AFC Wild Card spot. Currently, Ryan’s Buffalo defense is 17th in total yards allowed and 14th in points allowed, while his offense sits at 22nd in total yardage. Not surprisingly, his rushing offense is top-five in attempts, yardage, and touchdowns, while the passing offense is twenty-first or lower in attempts, yardage, and touchdowns.[12]
All the aforementioned statistics considered, it’s confusing why announcers and analysts laud Rex with such fervor. It’s no secret that Rex is a media dream; bad or good, viewers tune in to marvel and mock. But why have analysts gulped the Rex Ryan Kool-Aid so passionately?
Rob Ryan was recently fired from his role as defensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints, probably because[13; all statistics in this graf from the aforementioned source], in his 12 seasons as an NFL defensive coordinator, in terms of total defense, he’s wielded a top-five team twice and a bottom-ten defense eight times. A Rob Ryan defense has only cracked the top twelve in terms of points allowed per game once, and Rob has never had a team in the top fifteen in takeaways. Seeing as Rob has yet to find another job, it’s possible that those “the the football know” have taken notice.
On paper—despite what self-congratulatory monikers Rex or Rob have given themselves—the statistics aren’t there. But, if there’s any consistency to the Ryan name, it’s that someone eventually is always willing to hire them, whether it’s warranted or not.
Despite the undeniable facts, win or lose during his tenure in Buffalo, Rex will continue to fail upward. Gunslinger Rex will give press conferences, guns a-blazing, spurs a-kicking, “straight shooting” mighty promises at a franchise’s fan base, desperate for something or someone to believe in. My only advice to Buffalo—or whatever franchise Ryan ends up captaining next—is to reconsider the Kool-Aid before imbibing. http://gty.im/498520008
[1] http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRe0.htm
[2] http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12154002/buffalo-bills-hire-rex-ryan-next-head-coach
[3] http://swosuathletics.com/sports/2013/8/17/FB_0817134939.aspx?path=football
[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/magazine/12ryan-t.html?_r=0
[5] http://www.totalfootballstats.com/TeamProfile.asp?id=2227
[6] http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/magazine/12ryan-t.html?_r=0
[7] http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd/1994.htm
[8] All subsequent college statistics in this graf come from: http://www.sports-reference.com/
[9] All forthcoming statistics were gleaned from ESPN.com unless noted otherwise
[10]All statistics in this graf and the subsequent graf come from: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRe0.htm
[11] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/
[12] Buffalo statistics from: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRe0.htm
[13] Subsequent Rob Ryan coaching statistics from: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRo0.htm