The third week of College Football Playoff rankings are out. And what do you know? More and more the Committee looks like they might just know what they’re doing. I’m still not a believer in Iowa despite their apparent knocking on the playoff door. As I wrote last week, I can’t see a scenario where Florida gets it regardless of their rank. But more on all of that in a minute. Let’s review the top four first.
The Current Four
The top spots remained unchanged from a week ago — Clemson (10-0), Alabama (9-1), Ohio State (10-0), and Notre Dame (9-1). I maintain that OSU is the weakest of the top four in that fact they’ve yet to really prove they belong there. That could change this week as #9 Michigan State comes to town. Obviously a game OSU has to win … one slip up and they fall out of the four. I don’t see the Committee giving them a one loss pass they way they have with ND and Alabama. Even if that loss was to Michigan State.
So what about Clemson and ND? The Tigers did enough to hold conference opponent Syracuse. While the victory was not their more impressive game, they continue to win the games they should. Next up is Wake Forest (3-7) and then South Carolina (3-7). Both are games Clemson needs to win. Like OSU, the Tigers cannot expect to suffer a loss and still find themselves in the top four when the season ends.
The Irish didn’t look to be at their best last week, but they did beat Wake Forest 28-7 in South Bend. QB DeShone Kizer struggled, as did the rest of the Notre Dame offense, for most of the day. However, the defense was fairly solid and a couple of big plays led to the win. Their final two games should be decent tests for them. Boston College is better than their 3-7 record and tends to play the Irish tough. Then ND travels to Southern California to play Stanford in what could be essentially a “plan-in” game for the each team. If the Irish win out, including a victory at Stanford, it’ll be hard to deny them a spot. Stanford could still win the PAC-12 title and make their case for the 4th spot if they can pull the upset of ND.
While the outcome of the Michigan State at Ohio State could shake up the top spots, it’s more likely the final week of the season will be where destinies are cemented and dreams are shattered.
Knocking on the Door
People of the state of Oklahoma can smell the College Football Playoffs. Both big in state school, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, are knocking at the door ranked #7 and #6 respectively. Both teams survived another week and moved up in the eyes of the Committee. If either of them wins out, they will make a strong case for spot in the playoffs.
Oklahoma State almost fell into the trap at Iowa State this past week. Coming off a big (and emotional) home win against TCU the week before, the Cowboys played down to the 3-7 Cyclones level and almost got beat. That 35-31 win was too close and will surely fuel the fire for skeptics who still believe Mike Gundy’s team is overrated. Those skeptics might have a point. Either this team is one of the most overachieving teams in the nation or they are a legit contender. And like so many others, they only way to prove it is to win out. It won’t be easy. Next up is #10 Baylor who has to show they still have something to play for after an upset loss last week vs. Oklahoma.
Speaking of those Sooners, they are surging at just the right time. As I mentioned in my preview of the Baylor/Oklahoma game, they’ve been on roll since that embarrassing loss to Texas. And while I misjudged how good they are (I picked Baylor), Bob Stoops team still has to convince most of the fans outside of Oklahoma that they belong. They play #18 TCU this week and can’t take them for granted. The Horned Frogs have fallen dramatically in the past few weeks (since being upset by Oklahoma State) but they remain an explosive team. The Sooners have the offense to keep up and they’ll probably need it this week in Norman.
Which then could set up the game of the year in Stillwater, Oklahoma on November 28th. If both the Sooners and the Cowboys win this coming week, they have a chance to settle the debate for state supremacy on the field. Even if one of them loses, it could still be a great game. While both coaches would obviously prefer to be playing for a playoff spot, either Gundy or Stoops would do just as well to play the spoiler to the other.
And speaking of spoilers, what about the Iowa Hawkeyes? The Committee seems to love this 10-0 team enough to put them at #5 — outside but oh so close! I’m still not convinced. Their schedule has been soft and I point to the past two weeks when Iowa has squeaked out victories against feisty, but less-talented opponents. They escaped against Minnesota last week 40-35 and slipped by Indiana 35-27 the week before. Here’s what should make you pause when evaluating the Hawkeyes, they are supposed to have a strong defense which on the season has allowed just over 300 yards of offense per game and yielded 18 points per contest. However, against Minnesota they surrendered 35 points and against Indiana 27 points. While both are heated conference rivalries, neither team is an offensive juggernaut. The Committee has to consider not just what Iowa has done, but how they’d fare (and compare) to the teams ahead of them. If they can’t keep the Golden Gophers from putting up 35 how would they begin to slow down Clemson or Notre Dame? I’m just not seeing it.
As for other teams hanging around, I refuse to write anymore about Florida. I’m sorry … they are having a great season and the SEC should just reserve Jim McElwain the VIP seat at their awards banquet. This guy has to be the SEC coach of the year without question, reservation, or argument. He’s done one of the best coaching jobs in the country when you consider where his team is, where they should be, and the fact he lost his starting QB to a supplement SNAFU. I have no problem saying right now he’ll be my national coach of the year for what it’s worth. But you know what? I still can’t see Florida in the playoffs.
Assuming the Gators don’t shoot themselves in the foot, they’ll be playing for the SEC title on December 5th. Smart money says they’re opponent will be Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide. I’m calling it now … The Tide will destroy (yes, destroy) the Gators if that game happens. I’m talking a three score final spread. Send the hate mail to me if you must, but we’ll see.
Quick Kudos to the Committee
Outside of the contenders, the Committee gave some love to some other deserving teams. Navy absolutely deserves to be at #16. The service academies are often relegated to an after thought, but the 8-1 Midshipmen have earned their spot. They’ve already crushed Memphis’ perfect season two weeks ago (45-20) and I think they’ll do the same to Houston on November 27th.
North Carolina is right where they belong. ESPN and others are clamoring about the Tar Heels being underrated, but who have they beaten? They have one quality win over #23 Pitt (26-19) and a solid victory over Duke (66-31). But they haven’t played Clemson or Florida State. Sure, an unfortunate product of scheduling and they did try to schedule some quality non-conference by opening their season against SEC under card team, South Carolina. Even that backfired at South Carolina won the opener 17-13. I don’t see UNC sniffing the top 10 and I think all this chatter is a product of high paid corporate bloggers needing something to write about. Sorry guys — calling like I see it.