It’s been a season of surprises and underdogs in College Football. Teams that were supposed to be rebuilding (Michigan, Florida) have been better than expected. Teams that were supposed to be contending have disappointed (Georgia, Mississippi State). And a lot of the little guys, or at least some of the forgotten schools, have reeked havoc on the AP polls and more importantly … they’ve shook up the national playoff picture.
One of those teams is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Now standing alone atop the Big Ten West, the Hawkeyes are 7-0 overall (3-0 conference) and are demanding national attention. Coming off a 40-10 win over Northwestern, the Hawkeyes are daring the naysayers and looking for believers.
Kirk Ferentz has been the head coach at Iowa since 1999. The length of his tenure alone speaks volumes to the quality of recruiting and coaching that goes on in Iowa City. His teams have won two Big Ten Championships (2002, 2004) and been to 12 bowl games. Ferentz has been named Big Ten Coach of the Year three times (2002, 2004, 2009) and he was the AP Coach of the Year in 2002. Even given all of that success, this year may be his most impressive coaching job yet. But don’t expect Ferentz to admit that.
It’s hard to believe there was speculation going into the season that Ferentz might be on the hot seat. A decline in ticket sales spurred speculation that Iowa might consider replacing the long time coach. It should be fair to say that speculation has been all but forgotten.
How are the Hawkeyes This Deep?
Let’s withhold expectations for a minute … the Iowa Hawkeyes shouldn’t be 7-0 simply because of the injuries they’ve suffered. Here’s a quick list of some of the players who’ve are out for the season, have missed at least one game, or are clearly not 100%:
- Drew Ott, DE and Iowa’s best defensive player – torn ACL in Illinois game now out for the season
- LaShun Daniels, top RB on the depth chart – out with an ankle injury
- Tevaun Smith, senior and team’s best WR – missed two games and played injured last week
- Jordan Canzeri, backup RB injured last week and had to leave the game
- C.J. Beathard, starting QB suffered groin injury but played through last week
- Jake Duzey, senior TE – out 3-4 months with injury from April training
- Cole Croston, Jr., starting LT – missed last week’s game with injury
- James Daniels, starting RT – missed last week’s game with injury
The 2015 Iowa Hawkeye look more like a cast for the next AFLAC commercial than they do the poster boys for CFB underdogs. But that’s one of the things you have to respect about them. They’ve played through adversity and injuries that should have derailed them into at least one loss by now. Instead, guys who are second and third on the depth charts have stepped up and contributed big.
Nobody has been a better example of the next guy stepping up, then sophomore running back Akrum Wadley. Not a household name? That’s ok, before last Saturday he probably wasn’t a household name in Iowa City either. All Wadley did was step in when starting RB Jordan Canzeri went down and then run wild on one of the best defenses in the nation. Wadley carried the ball 26 times for 204 yards and a tied a school record with 4 touchdowns. Not a bad day for a guy who started the season listed as #4 on the depth chart. In fact, it was good enough to earn him a Big Ten Player of the Week award.
And the guy he replaced, Canzeri, he’s also a sub for the #1 RB LaShun Daniels. As backups go, Canzeri was holding his own to say the least. Going into last week, he was ranked third in the Big Ten in rushing and had just torched Illinois for 256 yards the week before.
Those accomplishments say as much about the team as they do the individual players who achieved them. In D-I football, there hasn’t been a team since 1996 that has had two different 200 yard rushers in consecutive games (credit: Matt Benson). While Canzeri and Wadley are two of the most visible examples, subs have been making major contributions all over the field for the Hawkeyes this season.
Makes you wonder if Coach Ferentz doesn’t have his depth chart in order or if his team would be even better with all their #1 guys healthy?
The Road to the Big Ten Title Goes Through Here
Will their defeat of Northwestern, Iowa secured the right to drive their own destiny. If they win outright, they’ll be playing either Michigan State or Ohio State for the Big Ten championship. And when you look at Iowa’s remaining schedule, it’s very possible (if not likely) they will run the table. Here’s who’s left on the schedule:
- Next week – Bye
- Oct 31st – vs. Maryland
- Nov 7th – at Indiana
- Nov 14th – vs. Minnesota
- Nov 21st – vs. Purdue
- Nov 27th – at Nebraska
So after the upcoming bye week, they’ve got three of their last five as home games. The upcoming opponents combined record is 14-20 on the season. None of their upcoming opponents are ranked in the Top 25 nor are they likely to get there. Sure there’s no givens in CFB, but at this point the odds favor the Hawkeyes.
Could Undefeated Not Be Enough?
Which brings up the big elephant in the room … what if going undefeated in the Big Ten is not enough to make the CFB playoff? Remember, there are four spots and somebody is going to be on the outside looking in. After seven weeks, the four top teams in the AP poll all have undefeated records (Ohio State, Baylor, Utah, and TCU). Iowa holds the #12 spot and including the top four there are eight undefeated teams ahead of them.
Any way you slice it, it seems likely somebody is getting left out. Iowa has to worry about how the committee looks at their schedule. Their non-conference games were certainly a bit soft (against Illinois State and Pitt) and they don’t play Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State (three other best teams in the conference) during the regular season. Granted, for Iowa to finish undefeated they’ll have to beat one of those teams in the Conference championship, but will that be enough?
Consider this scenario: #1Ohio State and #7Michigan State meet up on 11/21 and let’s assume they’re both still undefeated at that point. If the winner of that game also wins the Big Ten East (which they should) and then Iowa runs the table and beats that team in the championship, doesn’t that make Iowa one of the top four in the country? This argument seems especially valid if it’s an unbeaten/top ranked Ohio State team that they defeat in the conference championship.
Yes, we’re getting ahead of ourselves and a lot has to happen between now and then. But for the first time in a long time, the Iowa Hawkeyes not only control their own path to a conference championship, they could be knocking on the national title door.