There’s a big matchup in the Big-12 this week as West Virginia travels to Waco, Texas to take on the #2 ranked Baylor Bears. WVU is coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to Oklahoma State (26-33). Baylor, on the other hand, is coming off an easy win against Kansas (66-7). One team is looking to stay in contention for a national title. The other is looking to reek havoc on conference foes by playing spoiler.
Payback Time
Only four teams made into the new college playoff system last year leaving plenty of schools wondering about what could have been. That heartbreak was hardest at Baylor who ended the year ranked #5. It was a sole loss to these same Mountaineers which cost the Bears their shot at a national title. That 41-27 loss still haunts the Baylor coaching staff and the players that returned. On Saturday, payback will be on the brain.
“We remember the game a lot because it messed up our season,” defensive back Xavien Howard said. “It really messed up being in the playoffs.”
Baylor Head Coach Art Briles has been quick to give credit to a talented WVU team. “Last year going into this game, we felt pretty good,” Briles said. “They outplayed us, they outcoached us, they did a better job that day than we did.
Briles doesn’t want his guys to let revenge be their primary motivation. “If there’s any revenge, it’s on us. We’re going to blame them for beating us? The way we look at it is it’s our fault, it’s my fault. We didn’t take care of our part. They just did their job and we didn’t do our job. That’s the way it is Saturday, we’ll have an opportunity to do our job.”
Quarterback Friendly System
So does Baylor have a QB friendly system? Yes, of course. But should that skew our evaluation of the QBs that run the system? Well, there’s where the debate comes in.
An offensive system that produced Robert Griffin III and Bryce Petty has a new caretaker. Seth Russell, junior from Garland, Texas is the Bears starting QB this season. Russell has been putting up some gowdy numbers: 22 TD passes, 305 passing yards per game, and 210.7 QBR. To say Baylor likes to air it out is gross understatement. But what this offense really likes to do is score points.
Baylor has the best offense in the nation that racks up 357.6 yards rushing (2nd) and 367.4 yards passing per game (8th). But the real jaw dropping number is in points scored. Baylor is torching the competition for 64 points per game. That’s enough to give the most seasoned defensive coordinator a belly full of ulcers.
Even with all of this and being ranked #2 in the latest AP poll, many CFB fans are still reluctant to believe the Bears are real contenders. West Virginia will be the best defense they’ve seen so far and if Baylor’s offense can run wild on them, then by next week they’ll have converted some skeptics.
Likewise for their QB. A strong showing by Russell will only improve his Heisman stock and should quiet some critics that early opponents have been soft. Even if Saturday’s game doesn’t earn him the respect he deserves, Russell will have the last three weekends in November to make his case (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU).
Mountaineers on Offense
West Virginia will use a three prong running attack against Baylor. Two running backs and quarterback Skyler Howard will keep the Baylor front seven on their toes. Junior RB Wendell Smallwood deservedly will get most of the attention. The Wilmington, Delaware native leads his team in carries, yards, and rushing TDs. His current total of 589 rushing yards has him on a pace to easily surpass his sophomore numbers (722 yards). Most noticeable has been the dramatic increase in his yards per carry (4.9 in 2014 to 6.6 in 2015).
And Smallwood is on a roll having rushed for 100 yards in three straight games. He’s currently the #2 rusher in the Big-12 and may finally be starting to get the notoriety he deserves. His coach has already labeled him “the best offensive player on the team” and that’s no stretch.
Smallwood also feels his team is ready to step up and play spoiler.
“Yeah, I feel like we can step it up. These two games, I think people are going to take us lightly or not take us as serious. Just knowing we could’ve won these past two weeks, I don’t think the team is down about it. I think that’s going to help us to know we can play with the top teams and we’re going to try to get the win this week.”
-Wendell Smallwood, Junior RB, WVU
Quarterback Skyler Howard is a guy that college fans everywhere can cheer for (except maybe Baylor fans this weekend). When he came out of high school in Fort Worth, Texas, he was receiving zero interest from any of the major schools. Slightly undersized at “barely” six feet, Howard didn’t let the lack of initial interest deter him. He headed to Stephen F. Austin and joined their team as a walk on. However, in a twist many non-athlete college students can relate to, his personal funds ran out and he decided to go to Riverside Community College in California.
During his time at RCC, he led the Tigers to a 10-2 record while throwing for more than 3,000 yards and 33 TDs. All the sudden, some of those big schools decided to give this Texas kid another look. In West Virginia, Howard was attracted to a school that had a great recent history with developing proficient, mobile quarterbacks (Geno Smith, Pat White, and Jarrett Brown). The deal was sealed in part because the Mountaineers moved to the Big-12, a conference Howard grew up watching as a kid.
More details on Howard’s journey can be found at Fox Sports.
Why Baylor Will Win
How do you stop an offense that is putting up that many points? Even if WVU slows them down … so what? Hold them to say 35 points? Baylor’s defense may not be a championship level unit, but they’re not push over either. It’s hard to look at the Mountaineers offense and believe they keep up in a track meet with Baylor. Especially with the Bears being the home team.
The Mountaineers are in the middle of a tough stretch of games that started with Oklahoma (loss 44-24), then Oklahoma State (loss 33-26) and now Baylor and then TCU. No rest for the weary. Also, it’s hard to believe a defense that surrendered 44 to OU and 33 to OSU has any chance at stopping Baylor.
Why West Virginia Will Win
Last week West Virginia lost because of a slow start and four turnovers. The key to winning this week is the exact opposite — a fast start and winning the turnover battle. Bears QB Seth Russell has been known to throw a few picks and an aggressive secondary could make him pay. However, the best defense against Baylor’s offense is going to be just keeping them on the sidelines.
So, the other key for WVU will be time of possession. If any team is going to beat Baylor this year, they’re going to have to dominate TOP. The Mountaineers could be that team again if they are able to successfully run the ball. That means both Smallwood and Howard will need to pile up some yardage on the ground.
The BOLD Prediction
I will probably cheer for the underdog Mountaineers but in the end, I can’t see them beating Baylor at home — Baylor 49, WVU 28