It’s a tale of the modern NBA free agent market. A full season before a player becomes an unrestricted free agent, countless articles will be written speculating where said player will be after his free agency ends. Most of what is written is based on pure speculation or unfounded rumors. Speculating where a top FA will end up is often like the drunk guy haphazardly tossing a dart across the room in a board he can barely see. But then again, who doesn’t like to throw darts?
The courtship of Kevin Durant has started already. No, of course not officially. No team can officially approach Durant or his agent about his interest in their organization until after the season is over. Since the summer of Wade, Bosh, and King James (2010), you can bet the league office is paying close attention to every statement, every whisper, every action a potential suitor makes toward Durant. For his part, he remains the constant professional wanting only to focus on winning this year in OKC.
Durant was furious last week when ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith took the airwaves to report that “his sources” told him KD was very interested in joining the Lakers. Durant’s response was swift and clear: “I don’t talk to Stephen A. Smith at all. Nobody in my family, my friends, they don’t talk to Stephen A. Smith, so he’s lying.”
In August, Durant was already fielding questions fueled by rumors on what would happen during free agency in the summer of 2016. He warned members of the media then to “check their sources” and was clear that his inner circle is very small.
Therefore, as a disclaimer, my article is NOT based on any sources close to Kevin Durant. All analysis and conclusions I make are mine and mine alone. I will reference my sources so you can do your homework (if you desire) and draw your own conclusions.
The first thing you’ll want to understand is that the summer of 2016 will be BIG for free agents. Why? Well, first of all the salary cap is increasing due to the new television package the NBA signed. The league announced in July that the cap for 2015-2016 season would be $70 million which was an 11% increase over the season before. Keep in mind this is before the benefits of the new TV deal have kicked in. If the cap only goes up by another 11%, the 2016-2017 cap will be approximately $78 million. However, many analysts believe the cap will jump by a whopping 20-25% which would put next season’s cap up to $87 million.
Smart executives all over the league knew this was coming. They’ve been planning and positioning for it. Several teams will find themselves in a good position to bid for top free agents. Much like LeBron before him, there is no doubt Durant will secure max contract money. The more important question will be what kind of a team will be fielded around him.
At this point, nobody knows for sure where the number will land. Best bets are on a 15-20% jump with the cap reaching the $100 million mark by the 2019-2020 season. The increase in cap space is critical to not only acquiring new marquee players (like Durant) but also locking up a team’s existing talent with max contracts. Here’s the breakdown of what those max contacts will look like:
Current max contracts for 2015-2016 season
- Player with up to 6 years exp = $14.7M 1st year max
- Player with 7 to 9 years exp = $17.7 M 1st year max
- Player with 10 years or more exp = $20.6M 1st year max
Now how would these tiers look if the cap increased to say $90 million a year?
Hypothetical max contacts for 2016-2017 season
- Player with up to 6 years exp = $21M 1st year max
- Player with 7 to 9 years exp = $25.3M
- Player with 10 years or more exp = $29.5M
Durant would fall in the middle tier so he’d be looking at a $25.3M 1st year max under this possible scenario … almost a $10M one year increase from the current cap. This is just guess work at this point.
What teams are well position to make a run at Kevin Durant? I examined a couple of factors including projected cap space, supporting cast, and intangibles. With those criteria, my unscientific analysis came up with the four strong suitors for Durant’s services:
Boston Celtics Projected Cap Number: $19.1M
What might appeal to Durant : The Celtics are arguably the most heralded franchise in NBA history. No team has won more titles than Boston. The fanbase is rabid and loyal and it’s truly a city that Durant could become a legend in. Brad Stevens is still trying to find himself in the NBA after a remarkable college run at Butler. But he is young and energetic and by all accounts a “player’s coach.”
Point guard Isaiah Thomas can score and create opportunities. Durant would benefit from playing on a team with a playmaker at the point (as he has with Westbrook in OKC). Rookie Terry Rozier, 1st round from Louisville, has the chance to be a solid scorer in the NBA. If he can establish himself during his first year, Durant might have more confidence that he wouldn’t be a one man show in the Garden.
But perhaps the greatest selling point to Durant is neither the history, nor the current team, but the future. GM Danny Ainge has done a remarkable job of stockpiling future draft picks. A full list and explanation can be found here but the highlights look like this — for the 2016 draft the Celtics currently own Brooklyn’s 1st round pick, Dallas’s first round pick (if 8 or higher otherwise they get 2017 first round pick), Minnesota’s 1st round pick (if 13 or higher otherwise they get 2nd round), Philadelphia’s 2nd round pick, either Dallas or Memphis’ 2nd round pick (which ever is better), Miami’s 2nd round pick, and Cleveland’s 2nd round pick.
Wow! That’s a lot of draft potential! And it doesn’t stop there. The Celtics potentially have additional 1st round picks already secured for the next five drafts.
That gives the execs in Boston the opportunity to paint the future when selling to Durant. A talented, young team built around him could be a great sales pitch .
Why he might stay away: The shadows in Boston are long. Great fans without a doubt. But a player even of Durant’s caliber is always going to be standing in the shadow of all of the great players that came before him. Some guys don’t mind that. Others would prefer a franchise they can make their own (can you name one Chicago Bulls great before Michael Jordan?).
Also the prospect of building a young team is both enticing and terrifying. There’s rarely a sure bet in the NBA draft and it’s possible even with all those picks, Durant might not end up being surrounded by quality talent. Moreover, it’s possible (maybe unlikely) that another bad season and Brad Stevens is out. Breaking in a new coach might not be something Durant wants to do as soon as he arrives in town.
LA Lakers Projected Cap Number: $20
What might appeal to Durant: Like the Celtics, the Lakers have a storied NBA history. It’s a championship town where some of the NBA’s greatest players have worn the jersey. And L.A. is Tinsel Town … big lights, bright nights. There’s probably no other market (save New York) where Durant could nab as much off the court money.
The Lakers used the 2nd overall pick in this past summer’s draft on a dynamic point guard from The Ohio State University. D’Angelo Russell might be something special in this league. In his single year of NCAA ball, Russell showed some flashes of absolutely brilliant play. He was a prolific scorer at 19.3 ppg while still grabbing nearly 6 rebounds a game. Some project he’ll become the next Russell Westbrook and has many of the same playmaking abilities.
Also like the Celtics, the Lakers potentially have enough cap room to add Durant plus another top star. If Russell lives up to his promise, they could build the type trifecta that Miami rode to two championships.
Why he might stay away: Kobe Bryant. It’s hard to be so critical of one of the league greatest players of all-time, but it Kobe does return next year, he’s likely to cost LA their shot at Durant. Kobe would command the top tier money as a veteran with over 10 years of experience. Based on his comments and position during the last big flurry of free agency, he’s not likely to offer the Lakers a discount either. By default, that makes him the “other big star” on the team rather than the ability to sign someone who’s game might better compliment Durant’s style. The other problem is Kobe stays is about personalities. It doesn’t appear on the surface like he and Durant have similar personalities at all. Kobe is fierce, cold and no-nonsense. For the most part, Durant is much more laid back and approachable. The last thing the Lakers want to do is repeat the disaster that was the Dwight Howard signing. Therefore, if Kobe comes back, Durant likely stays away.
Philadelphia 76ers Projected Cap Number: $15M
What might appeal to Durant: Don’t look now, but the 76ers might just be building a strong, young nucleus. They used their lottery pick this past summer on Duke’s Jahlil Okafor (a player many analysts thought was the best in the draft). In the 2014 draft, they selected UK’s Nerlens Noel. If these big men can develop the way the front office anticipates, the 76ers would have the most feared post duo since David Robinson and Tim Duncan.
And having those big guys under the bucket should make perimeter space for Durant. KD makes a living with his fifteen foot jumper and it’s a lot harder to double team him if you’re worried about a couple of big fellas in the paint. They also could take rebounding and defensive pressure off a KD letting him focus completely on finding his own shot.
The 76ers are so far under the potential cap they would likely want to sign Durant and at least one (if not two) other players to max deals. Wouldn’t Mike Conley (Memphis) or DeMar DeRozan (Toronto) fit it nicely?
Why he might stay away: Big men with potential have terrible track records over the past decade in the NBA. Lots of theories on this but, the point remains that Okafor and Noel may need to show something this season for Durant to have confidence they guys are the real deal. As much as it could help his game have a pair of effective big men underneath, it could equally hinder his game to have a pair dead weights just hanging in the paint.
Also, it’s been a LONG TIME since Philadelphia was a winner. This is not their first rebuilding project and it’s logical how that factor might scare away Durant.
Washington Wizards Projected Cap Number: $55M
What might appeal to Durant: Coming home – plain and simple. Durant grew up in the Washington D.C. area and as Lebron has taught us, there is something so poetic about coming home. Only Durant truly knows how important this is to him. If there was really no allure to playing in his hometown, he wouldn’t be the first player to skip such an opportunity (Dwayne Wade and Chicago as an example). But if we assume it’s the former rather than the later, Washington has one intangible no other franchise can sell on.
As stated earlier, going to a team with a strong point guard has to be high on his list. He’s seen the benefits of playing with an all-star PG now and it’s hard to believe Durant wouldn’t have that factor high on his shopping list. With John Wall as their PG, the Wizards have the meet that criteria. Wall is one of the most dynamic young guards in the league and he’s still locked up under contract past the summer of 2016.
In addition to Wall, Washington has Bradley Beal in the backcourt. He’s also one of the most promising young guards in the NBA. The challenge is that he’ll be a FA in 2016 as well. The Wizards are going to have to open the pocketbook to keep his services. Having him on the team might also be critical to luring Durant (see Trifecta argument).
Why he might stay away: The team still has a lot of question marks. Current coach Randy Wittman has been coaching in the NBA since 1992. But he doesn’t have a winning record and he’s somewhat of a difficult guy to get an angle on. Is he a better coach than his record? Do the decades of experience make up for the lack of winning? Will this be his last season in Washington?
And at the risk of sounding mean-spirited, the Wizards are a franchise that have historically made more headlines off the court than on. It’s not exactly the pinnacle of basketball excellence in the nation’s capital. Maybe Durant could change that. Maybe he’d rather not bother.
Conclusion
The speculation is likely to last all season. It’s possible Durant will sign a new deal with Oklahoma City without really testing out free agency (he did exactly that during the summer of 2010). But it seems unlikely he’ll ink anything until free agency hits in full force. This is his best chance to test the market and he has a legitimate chance to make historic money. Maybe even the largest contract ever in the NBA. Even for a guy as humble and down to Earth as Durant, that opportunity might be too good to pass up.
Note: Salaries and cap data came from HoopsHype
Where do you think Kevin Durant ends up after this season? Leave comments below