One thing about the NBA season is for certain, the Golden State Warriors are not going to sneak up on anybody. Every team in the Western Conference will be amped up to play the Warriors. Every matchup will be intense and likely to bring out the best in their opponents. Crowds on the road will be louder and more hostile. Expectations will be loftier and failure less acceptable. Such is the burden a team bears for being the reigning NBA champs.
Coach Steve Kerr led a team that won 67 games in the regular season, before shocking the Western Conference and then the basketball world by winning their first NBA title since 1975. In so many ways, it was their season … a dream season for the Warriors.
Have no illusions, the 2014-2015 Golden State Warriors were a very good squad. Now that they have their title, the Warriors must go about the most difficult task in all of professional sports — defending your crown.
At least, that’s what coaches and players and those close to the court will say. But is it true?
How hard it is really to defend a title?
Back-to-Back by the Numbers
Statistically, it may not be as hard as you’d think. To get a clearer picture, let’s look back first. Here are all the teams to have ever won back-to-back NBA championships:
- Minnesota Lakes (‘52,’53,’54)
- Boston Celtics (‘59,’60,’61,’62,’63,’64,’65,’66) and (‘68,’69)
- Los Angeles Lakers (‘87,’88) and (‘00,’01,’02) and (‘09,’10)
- Detroit Pistons (‘89,’90)
- Chicago Bulls (‘91,’92,’93)
- Houston Rockets (‘94,’95)
- Chicago Bulls (‘96,’97,’98)
- Miami Heat (‘12, 13)
I’ll do the math for you: since 1950 the NBA has crowned 65 champs and 21 have been back-to-back. What that equates to is that 32% of the time or nearly 1 in 3 championships.
That’s unheard of by the standards of any other professional sport.
Stats geeks are going to point at that the Celtics of the 1960s had an unprecedented dynasty and they are skewing the results. Ok, if we accept those Celtics are outliers and removed them from the analysis we end up with this — 44 champs with 11 back-to-back crowns. That’s now 25% of the time or 1 in 4 championships.
Still, an unheard of rate. And pretty good odds if you’re the betting type.
Now consider this: of the 30 current teams in the NBA, 13 have NEVER won a championship. That’s roughly 43% of the league’s franchises. If each team had a statistically equal chance of winning it all (I know this is academic since they all don’t really have an equal chance), a team that has never won a championship has only about a 5% chance of winning a title.
Note: for those trying to do the math, see this resource
The bottom line is this – it is more likely the Golden State Warriors will repeat as champs than it is a team that has never won a championship will win its first.
The professional books know how to do this math. Golden State is ranked as the third most likely to team to win the 2016 title (see odds as of August 30, 2015).
So the notion that defending the title or winning another crown is the most difficult task for an NBA team might be a stretch. It’s not easy either. But no heads should spin if come June 2016 we are talking about the Golden State Warriors as the NBA champions (again).
The Splash Brothers and Co.
Even if the numbers are favorable, do the Warriors have the team to do it? Well, it depends greatly on how you view their run last season. Was it the NBA’s equivalent of a singularity where many cosmic forces happen to gather at precisely the right point and time? Or was it the inevitable product of classic team building, good coaching, and the play of an extraordinary star?
Let’s look at some more numbers. Here’s a recap of the statistical highlights:
- The 10th team in NBA history to win at least 67 games and were 5 wins away from the NBA record (72 wins by the 95-96 Chicago Bulls);
- First Western Conference team to win 39 home games in a single season;
- Sunk 883 3-point buckets in the regular season (3rd most in NBA history);
- First team since the 77-78 Phoenix Suns to lead the NBA in both pace and defensive efficiency.
It’s hard to put all of that statistical evidence on a mere coincidence of opportunity. Sure, several conference teams were down with key injuries and other team imploded in the end. But the Warriors didn’t just take advantage of an open window, this is a team well built and well coached. It all starts with the best backcourt in the NBA.
In case you didn’t see a lot of Golden State games last year, let me clue you in on something … Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can really, really shoot the ball. I mean, this guys can drill it. They’re so good from the field, it’s nearly impossible to argue there’s a better backcourt in the NBA today. In fact, some might argue they are the best backcourt duo of all time.
What Thompson and Curry present to opposing teams is a classic matchup problem. A team may have one solid guard or small forward who can smother an opponent. But few teams have two. As the Cavs learned the hard way, taking away one of the Splash Brothers is not enough. Opponents will have to get creative and do a better job than last season if they want to slow the dynamic duo down.
If they stay healthy, there is no reason to believe these guys will stop lighting it up. But who is scoring when it’s not Curry or Thompson? There in, lies the biggest question the Warriors have yet to answer. Lucky for them, they may have the answer already on their roster.
The Third Man
Andre Iguodala was in a new spot last season. For the first time in his ten year NBA career, he was asked to come off the bench. The former 9th overall pick of the Philadelphia 76ers spent some time finding his place on a team already boasting stars. As fans know, Iguodala adjusted nicely and even came through as the 2015 Finals MVP.
While last year Golden States mostly looked to Iguodala for solid defensive play (he was selected to the NBA All-Defensive First Team in 2014), this season they might need more scoring from him. He’s player who has put up points in the past averaging 14.0 points per game for his career including 17+ for four consecutive seasons. He may not be as quick off the dribble as he once was, but he can still find his own shot when needed.
Can Iguodala regain his youthful (scoring) ways? It’s worth noting his versatility in that he can play the two guard or small forward. While Kerr won’t want to lose any of Iguodala’s defensive prowess, he might just look to the veteran for a little more scoring this year.
If not the versatile veteran, Golden State might look a budding youthful star. Harrison Barnes is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Depending on how you look at it, he may or may not a lot to play for. Some would contend that Barnes is virtually guaranteed a $20 million a year deal if he enters free agency next summer. That probably seems like a lot for a guy who’s only a borderline starter on his own team. But with the salary cap expected to jump and teams willing to spend, it may just be the right time to test the market.
On the other hand, some would argue that Barnes to show he’s worth that kind of money. The former seventh overall pick out of North Carolina has shown some flashes of his talent but not consistently lived up to a lottery pick status. He’s been a solid double digit scorer but nothing like the impact swing forward they expected. It could be that he’s simply been overshadowed by the Splash Brothers and isn’t getting enough “touches” per game.
One way or another, this will be an important season for Barnes. The Warriors will have to make a call on him soon. They have until October 31st to offer an extension or face the possibility of losing him to free agency. In many ways the next couple of weeks will answer the question of what role Barnes will play on the team. It’s hard to imagine the front office offering him a max extension for 10 points a game off the bench.
It’s not going to be enough to roll out the same group of guys and expect to win. Yes, Golden State has a great young core … but everybody is gunning for them now. Other Western Conference teams have gotten healthy, gotten help, and gotten smart. If Kerr can direct his team to the NBA finals again, it would be a great accomplishment in his young coaching career. And for the Splash Brothers … a long title run would help Curry and Thompson can take another step forward to cementing their legacy as one of the best backcourt duos of all time.