FIFA Women's World Cup Final Preview: USA v. Japan

After taking down top-ranked Germany, the United States Women’s National Team is headed to Vancouver for a rematch of the 2011 World Cup Final against Japan. Although Japan’s route to BC Place Stadium was perhaps not the perfect storybook narrative—barely escaping an upset against England, who went out tragically on a stoppage time own goal—the matchup is one worthy of the occasion. The USWNT is a quality squad of professional athletes, but after the United States heartbreaking loss to Japan in the World Cup Final four years ago, you can bet that the Americans, whatever their professionalism, are still hungry for one thing: revenge.

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USWNT: Hitting its Stride, But Gears Left to Go

Ask anyone who has seen all six American matches this World Cup, and they’re all likely to give you the same answer: Tuesday’s match against Germany was the best the US have played so far. With Megan Rapinoe and Lauren Holiday back from suspension, the USWNT were again at full strength in terms of squad availability, and they took full advantage. From early on, the American women looked hungry and determined, and had both the better chances, and the better defense throughout the match. Heading into the final, this is precisely when one would hope to truly kick on.

Still, even for their strong performance, the US were somewhat lucky on Tuesday. Had Celia Sasic not sent her penalty wide—with Hope Solo having gone the opposite direction—the complexion of the game would have been entirely different with a 1-0 German advantage on the hour mark. The Americans’ defense has been nothing short of fantastic this tournament, evidenced by their current string of four consecutive clean sheets, but the gravity of Julie Johnston’s (who has been fantastic overall, it must be said) 59th minute mistake could well have seen the Americans out of title contention. One moment does not always a tournament make—but sometimes, sometimes it does. Just ask Laura Bassett, whose fantastic string of games in Canada will be overshadowed by the own goal that undid England.

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That the defense must stay disciplined is a commonplace in football, and the penalty opportunity against Germany notwithstanding, America has been exceptional in defense; it’s in attack that America has needed to up its game. Despite scoring two goals against the world’s top ranked team on Tuesday, the USWNT still has room to improve up front. That they looked dangerous all game is not enough—they need to, more consistently, make that pressure tell on the scoresheet. The second goal, which sealed the victory, was superb, as Carli Lloyd’s control and cross were met by Kelly O’hara’s combination of determination and technique. But if Alex Morgan were firing on all cylinders (and, admittedly, having only recently returned from injury it is hard to blame her for not being 100%), then the USA would have had at least a one, if not a two goal lead already at halftime.

Players to Watch

This tournament, the entire United States back line—and backbone—has been exceptional. Ali Krieger, Julie Johnston, Becky Sauerbrunn and Meghan Klingenberg have shielded Hope Solo better than most goalkeepers could hope for, allowing, for example, only a single shot on target throughout the entire semifinal match. To be an effective defensive unit in football, you need to work together, to be unified not only in holding your line, but also in communicating, closing down defenders, and maintaining awareness of one another’s presence on the pitch. And the United States defense has been just that: united.

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But among that remarkable back four, this tournament, one star has, for me, shone especially: Meghan Klingenberg. To take nothing away from the other three American defenders, Klingenberg’s performance has been truly outstanding. Her defense on the flank—pressuring players on the ball, winning possession, cutting out service—has been fabulous. What’s more, Klingenberg has provided an important outlet in attack as well, linking up repeatedly with Megan Rapinoe, arguably the USA’s most creative midfielder in attack. When your team has a left back who can push up field quickly, providing an outlet on the wing, while also consistently smothering out attacks coming in from the wide area in your own defensive third, the risk of playing too narrowly is diminished, and the creation of chances is increased. In Meghan Klingenberg—who has played every minute of every match in Canada—America has precisely such a wingback; and that has proved invaluable.

For the past three years, Aya Miyama has worn the captain’s armband for Japan, and has looked every bit the part. Those with memories of the 2011 Final will recall Aya Miyama as the player who poached Japan’s equalizer, following Alex Morgan’s opening goal—the shot that ultimately took the game to extra time. A creative midfielder who has been known to get on the scoresheet herself, Miyama’s play somewhat resembles that of America’s Megan Rapinoe. With more than 150 caps for Japan, and the experience of scoring in a World Cup Final against the United States already under her belt, Miyama is as seasoned as she is talented. Japan’s team is disciplined, but even among calm company, Miyama might be singled out as one you can bank on keeping her cool despite the magnitude of Sunday’s occasion, as she looks to cause problems in midfield for the US defense.

Predictions for a Historic Match

Only one other team in history has successfully defended a Women’s World Cup title, as Germany won back-to-back titles in 2003 and 2007. Japan will be looking to match the Germans on Sunday, but will have their work cutout. That said, they had their work cutout when they upset the United States four years ago, and on Sunday it will be Japan, not the Americans, who have a World Cup winners’ patch stitched to their jerseys.

In four more years, however, that patch is unlikely to be back. Japan has a strong squad, and their record in this tournament is even better than the US, who drew against Sweden in the group stage, while Japan has won every game. Still, call me a biased optimist, but I will bet on an American win in Vancouver this Sunday. The United States’ display in the semifinals was, by all accounts, more convincing than Japan’s. Playing the top-ranked team in the world, the United States’ semifinal performance produced twice as many shots, 15, and twice as many on target, 5, to Japan’s numbers of 7 and 2. Despite the Americans’ concession of a penalty on Tuesday, the USWNT looked as poised, polished, and hungry as they have all tournament. Japan, by contrast, looked nervous of an upset much of the match.

Of course, anything can happen at BC Place Stadium this weekend. Perhaps the US will again concede a penalty, and it will this time be buried along with American hopes. But I doubt it. The USWNT has not allowed a goal since their second group stage match against Sweden—that’s a clean sheet several hundred minutes long. If the US can combine the fiery desire for revenge with the same sort of steeled defensive discipline they have displayed all tournament, even with an offense firing at less than 100%, they should come out on top this Sunday. Japan will not make it easy for them, but nonetheless, look for the American women to leave Vancouver vindicated, their spirits lighter than ever—their bags weighed down by winners’ medals.