The Toronto Blue Jays don’t usually get stories this time of year. They’re a team that hasn’t sniffed the postseason since their last World Series title in 1993; nowadays they’ve developed a habit of being a trendy sleeper pick going into the season and quickly settling into mediocrity for the actual season. That exact trend seemed poised to happen again; Toronto traded for star third baseman Josh Donaldson in the offseason, but despite any early hype have basically languished in obscurity. And then suddenly, starting with the second game of a June 2nd doubleheader, the Blue Jays went and won 8 games in a row, propelling them above .500 to 31-30 and getting them just a scant 3 games out of first place in the AL East. In a division that’s been streaky all year, Toronto is the latest team to bundle wins together and throw themselves into possible playoff talks.
The AL East was not a division expected to have a clear winner or frontrunner (last year’s division winning Orioles are currently 2 games under .500), and midway through June it’s still anyone’s game. The Blue Jays are making their case. So how are they putting wins together?
Well, they’ve been hitting. That’s not a surprise. This team has hit from day one and have yet to stop. As a whole, the Blue Jays offense leads all of MLB in runs scored and slugging percentage. They’re also top 5 in average, OBP, home runs, and walk rate, and second in fWAR. The aforementioned Josh Donaldson’s stock has only risen since he became a Blue Jay, crushing 17 home runs to the tune of a 3.8 WAR. Since June 2nd, he’s raked even further, hitting .342 with 2 home runs. Donaldson’s not just a star, now he’s an MVP candidate. Toronto’s more tenured star, Jose Bautista, has also done his part with a .313 average and 4 home runs in that span. You can throw one of this season’s pleasant surprises in Russell Martin, who’s hit a couple home runs of his own, and power hitter Edwin Encarnacion, who’s hitting .417 with a home run in his last five games to try and work out of a season-long slump.
Jose Reyes, true to his reputation, has struggled to stay on the field this year, missing most of May. But since June 2nd, he’s looked more like the Jose Reyes of 2006 – he’s hit .351, scored 7 runs, stolen 5 bases without getting caught, crushed two home runs, and most importantly, has played every game in that stretch. Even Kevin Pillar, known almost entirely for his defense, has gotten in on the action since June 2nd, to the tune of a .357 average, 10 RBIs, and even a 2 home run game. So yeah, they’ve been hitting, to the point of averaging over 7 runs a game in this win streak. But other than the small sample size causing huge batting averages, this is nothing new for Toronto.
Remember those shiny, impressive stats on offense? Flip it and reverse it and you’ve got the pitching stats. Blue Jays pitchers have the second worst fWAR, the worst FIP, and the sixth worst ERA in all of baseball. They give up the third most home runs per nine innings. And despite playing 61 games, they have an unfathomable six saves combined. Six. It’s bad. Just don’t tell the pitching staff of this 8 game winning streak how bad they’ve been.
Drew Hutchinson, trying to right the ship after some extremely rough starts in April and early May, gave up just 1 run in 6.1 innings to get the win over Houston. Mark Buehrle, possibly the most consistent pitcher of our generation, pitched two games of this streak and went 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings. R.A. Dickey, continuing to look for consistency in his Toronto tenure, gave up just 2 runs in 5.2 innings on his June 7th start. Aaron Sanchez, 2010’s #2 overall pick, pitched a dynamite game on Jun 5th to hold the Astro to just one run in 8 innings. And Marco Estrada, who wasn’t even a part of the rotation until May, went 2-0 during the 8 game winning streak, pitching to a 3.46 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 13 innings.
The bullpen also did their part. Roberto Osuna kept up his fantastic season and during this streak gave up just one run in 3 appearances, as did Brett Cecil. Liam Hendriks didn’t give up any runs in 5 innings, and Aaron Loup didn’t allow a run in 3 innings, lowering his high ERA. So yes, they hit during this streak. But the pitching finally stepped up, and opponents only scored about 2.6 runs per game.
So what does Toronto need to do to stay in contention or even make the playoffs? This. Literally everything they’ve done right in this streak needs to continue. Obviously they’re not going to win out. But this team finally showed the incredible potential they have and won eight consecutive games… and it got them to third place. During the same time span as their win streak, the first place Yankees went 6-1 and the second plays Rays went 6-3. In a division that’s been defined by streaks, this latest one by Toronto is just that: the latest one. There will probably be more from other teams. But if the players that were struggling before – Dickey, Hutchinson, Encarnacion, Loup – can keep improving and get to the stats they’ve all put up in previous years, there’s a chance they can be the last team standing in this division.
There are still questions. Despite the draft hype, Aaron Sanchez is still a young player who teams will figure out more. There’s no guarantee that Kevin Pillar can be depended on to maintain the offense he showed during this streak. Marco Estrada’s had some home run problems in the past. Jose Reyes could literally shatter into a thousand tiny pieces. And there’s no guarantees that the struggling players that have been good in the past can get back to that level. But the Yankees and Rays all have problems, and they’re just as capable of going 2-8 in their next 10 games as they are of going 8-2. Toronto has shown they might just have what it takes to play with the big dogs. The Blue Jays end the season against all four of their AL East rivals. They can do it. But they’ll really have to earn it.