A 1-1 draw with a Chelsea side who made this years race for the Premier League title a non-event since about the beginning of March may not look bad for Liverpool in isolation. The draw however all but ended the Reds faint hopes of Champions League qualification for the 2015-16 season as they now need to win twice, have Manchester United lose twice and improbably reverse a 14 goal difference between the two teams to jump the Red Devils into fourth place at the end of the season.
Fifth place would be a wonderful achievement for the likes of Swansea, Everton, or even Spurs. For Liverpool however the league position is the worst that could be managed outside of relegation as it includes the poison chalice of entry to the Europa League.
There are countless problems with qualification for the Europa League, especially for teams from England. The English Football Association is one of the few on the continent which rarely helps out its clubs in stretches where the fixtures pile up and the Europa League will result in Liverpool playing for months on end with the dreaded Thursday/Sunday schedule in European then Premier League play. This format simply does not work for a team wanting to push on and get back in the top four in England as the travel and fatigue will build up while the Reds attempt to compete on both fronts.
On of the biggest problems with the Europa League is that proportionally to the Champions League it seems to entail far more trips to some of the furthest flung destinations in European football. This season for example Spurs found themselves in a group where they had to travel to Serbia, Turkey, and Greece, returning from some of these games just 48 hours before playing in the Premier League. The result was a stretched thin squad which has fallen apart over the last two months of the season costing Tottenham any shot at a top four place this year. This is almost entirely due to the added stress of the Europa League and the 55 games played by Spurs this season.
The only way to mitigate this problem is to have a squad with depth at every position where you can essentially rotate your starting team so it is different for the European and domestic games. In theory this is the way to go, but Liverpool have a squad which is so thin already that it is hard to see how it would cope without huge investment over the summer. This then becomes a cyclical problem as the best players want to play in the Champions League, so the Reds will be left attracting second tier talent who will not add much of anything to the squad.
This problem would have been mitigated somewhat if Liverpool had spent more wisely last summer after the sale of Luis Suarez to Barcelona. With Champions League football in the bag this was the time to build on and strengthen the squad to cement their place in the top four in England for the next four or five years. Instead few, if any, of the buys have worked out, and Liverpool are actually facing something of a crisis this offseason.
Rickie Lambert and Mario Balotelli ($25 million) look to be on their way out having done nothing for the Reds all season. With Daniel Sturridge being ruled out for the beginning os next season already, Fabio Borini a non-factor and Raheem Sterling embroiled in a contract dispute, it is anyone’s guess as to just who will score goals for Liverpool come September. The likes of Dejan Lovren and Lazar Markovic (over $62 million combined) will also have to vastly improve their form if they are to be part manager Brendan Rodgers’ plans going forward. Liverpool must buy two world-class strikers, a goal scoring midfielder and a defender who can hold their back line together at the very minimum this summer.
Another big problem with the Europa League is one of apathy. The players don’t want to be playing in Kazakhstan on a Thursday night in October and unless your squad has the right characters in it then that lack of desire quickly shows. Likewise it is much harder for fans to get worked up about playing the likes of Guingamp and AaB when at the same time last year they were anticipating the visit of Real Madrid.
The only benefit of playing in the Europa League is that it now signifies a direct route into the Champions League if you can somehow navigate the entirety of Europe and win the whole thing. Even then the better route to this goal would be by come in third place in a Champions League group as these teams filter into the Europa League at the knockout phase. When you also factor in the money lost by playing in the Europa League you can see the tricky situation which Liverpool are in moving forward.
There is a chant in England which has gained massive popularity among fans of clubs who are rivals to those seen as elite. “Thursday nights, Channel 5” pokes fun at the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham who have failed to qualify for the Champions League, which is played on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and have instead dropped into the pool for Europe’s second tier trophy. Liverpool fans better prepare to hear this chant throughout the grounds next season.