Last year, Sports Illustrated famously called the Houston Astros “Your 2017 World Series Champs.” Many laughed it off as a desperate bid for sales by overreacting to a team’s solid farm system. The Astros, however, seem to mostly be mad that they were told to wait until 2017. Houston has stormed out of the gate this season, riding a current 8-game winning streak (5 of those against divisional rivals) to a 16-7 record and a 5 game lead in the AL West. It’s a bit of a surprise in a division that had two playoff teams last year (LA and Oakland) and the trendy pick this year (Seattle).
So how have they done it? How have the Houston Astros, they of a 232-416 record the past 4 seasons, gotten off to a blistering start? Some may assume luck, but the truth is that this team has played quite well to get to where they are. The Astros offense has the 5th highest fWAR in the majors, and their .290 team BABIP indicates that it’s not just luck. A number of players have really stepped up while sluggers Chris Carter and Evan Gattis have struggled to start the season.
The pitching has been similarly sterling, as the Houston pitching staff has the 4th lowest ERA in the majors at 3.04, and their 3.43 FIP suggests that they’re not bound to regress too much. The top of the rotation has pitched wonderfully, continuing their surprising 2014 seasons, and the bullpen has pitched to a sparkling 2.27 ERA. If the bullpen can continue walking under 2 batters per 9 innings like they have so far, this team can remain extremely competitive.
This Astros team had been known for its farm system for quite some time. Those players are reaching the majors now, and Houston will sink or swim on its young talent. Let’s take a look at some of these young players that have gotten the Astros to first in the AL West, and whether they can keep up their production.
Jose Altuve
Altuve’s been the face of the Astros for a few years now, but he’s still only about to turn 25. Coming off a monster 225 hit season last year, he’s not just off to another good start this year, but is one of the biggest factors of their current win streak – in these 8 games, Jose Altuve raised his average from a solid .297 to an eye-popping .376, getting multiple hits in all 8 games. His BABIP so far is .391, suggesting he might be getting a little lucky. But the guy hit .341 in a full season last year, his regression will still result in a high average. His walk and strikeout rate are steady with last year, and he’s already got 7 doubles. He’s one of the best offensive players in the AL, if not all of MLB, and it’s actually totally reasonable to think he can duplicate at least a .340 average this season. On a competing team, that can take him from all-star to MVP candidate.
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel was a bit of a question mark coming into 2014, after two straight seasons of an ERA over 5. But a transformation occurred in 2014, and he went from 5th starter to staff ace, pitching to a 2.93 ERA in 200 innings. He’s built off that season significantly this year, going 3-0 with a 0.73 in his first 5 starts. He’s only given up earned runs in 2 starts. Certainly that level of production is not possible to sustain, as it goes hand in hand with his insane .157 BABIP against. Those batted balls are going to start falling in for hits. But even then, his FIP stands at just 2.87. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down, but neither significant enough to cause concern. We may just be watching a de facto staff ace turning into a legitimate ace.
George Springer
Springer’s .205 average is far from impressive, but it’s better when you consider that he was at .167 coming into what would become an 8-game win streak. In those 8 games, he’s gone 9-34, a .265 average, with 3 home runs. That’s far more in line with what to expect from Springer, who smacked 20 home runs in just 78 games his rookie season. It’s also far more likely that he can continue that level of production than his slumping start. The key is whether he can develop into a higher-average hitter, one that he projected to become in the minor leagues. Springer routinely hit around .300 in minor league seasons, but despite solid power numbers he’s hit just .225 as a whole since coming up to Houston. He can still be an integral member of this team with just the power, but if the average takes the next step, he could become the most feared hitter on this team.
Collin McHugh
McHugh had been a mid-level prospect that hadn’t quite panned out in stints with the Mets and Rockies. But his stats in the minors, particularly his consistent strikeout rate, always showed potential. The Astros picked him up and that potential surfaced last year, pitching to a 2.73 ERA with 157 strikeouts in 154.2 innings. This year, he’s won 3 of his first 4 starts and hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of them, with a 2.92 ERA. Can he remain that good all year? Well, some stats say he’s actually already been better than that. Hitters have been pretty lucky against him with a .342 BABIP against him. His FIP is 1.79, and his walks are down almost a full BB/9. If that BABIP goes down, you could actually see McHugh piling up even better stats than he currently has.
Jake Marisnick
Marisnick had been a top prospect in other organizations, and 2015 is his first chance to start the season as an everyday player in the majors. Currently, he’s riding a 9 game hitting streak. He’s got his average up to .383, has hit 3 home runs, and is one of the league leaders in stolen bases with 9. His immense .417 BABIP is bound to fall down to something more manageable. But so far this season, he’s doubled the walk rate and halved the strikeout rate he had last year in major league stints with the Astros and Marlins. His 7.4% walk rate is more in line with his solid minor league numbers, while his 14.7% strikeout rate is actually down from that. Marisnick certainly isn’t a .383 hitter, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could end this season hitting at a .280 clip with plenty of steals.
It’s not tough to believe that a lot of these guys can and will continue playing very well. The Astros probably aren’t going to be 16-7 good all season, but they can absolutely stay competitive until the very end. The Angels and Mariners are going to heat up eventually, and when that happens we’ll really see what these young Astros can do.