The Professional Footballers’ Association announced their nominees this week for the PFA Player of the Year award, the Premier League’s equivalent to an MVP in American professional sports. And (cue shoddy Hollywood imitation) the nominees are: Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, David De Gea, Alexis Sanchez, Harry Kane, and Philipe Coutinho. So, who among them looks likely to take home the trophy?
Eden Hazard’s to Lose?
Having been nominated for both the PFA Player of the Year, and Young Player of the Year Awards the past three years consecutively, this year included, Eden Hazard seems at the front of the race for the PFA this season. Further, last year, he was runner-up in the voting to Luis Suarez. Having won the Young Player of the Year last year, and with the only man to beat him out in last year’s voting now plying his trade down in Barcelona, is Eden Hazard the favorite to win it this year?
Probably not. Hazard’s 12 goals and 8 assists are good, but not the best. While there’s only one other player among the league’s top 10 scorers who is also on the top 10 assist list, Hazard’s position in both tables is far from the top. There are six players with more goals than Hazard this season, and while there are only three players with more assists, there are six other players with 8 assists—and the top of the list, Cesc Fabregas has exactly twice as many as his Chelsea teammate with 16. The PFA is likely beyond Hazard’s grasp this season, and with De Gea, Coutinho, and Kane all up for the Young Player of the Year award—along with Liverpool’s Raheem Sterling and Chelsea keeper Coutois—the young Belgian may have to content himself without personal silverware…and merely sit content with the EPL title at Chelsea. Rough life, eh?
Dark Horses: De Gea and Coutinho
Perhaps the most surprising names on the nominee list were David De Gea and Philipe Coutinho. Well, no, De Gea isn’t surprising as a nominee; but he doesn’t have a prayer. In the past decade, precisely zero goalkeepers have won the award. Many keepers have had heroic performances during that span, but perhaps none more than former Manchester United man Edwin Van der Sar in his final year, 2010-2011. The Flying Dutchman kept his team in numerous matches that season, earning himself a place on the PFA Team of the Year, en route to an EPL title, and a place in the Champions League Final. If a legendary goalkeeper who secured silverware for his team domestically, nearly did so in the Champions League, and who was about to bow out of the game wasn’t given the award, De Gea doesn’t have a chance. He’s had a great season, and has a shot at perhaps the Young Player award, but the PFA is out of the question; his nomination is merely a nod to keepers importance in the game, little more.
Coutinho, likewise, seems a kind if ultimately unfruitful gesture, not to goalkeepers, but to crowd-pleasing goals. Coutinho has scored some screamers this season: Southampton, Manchester City, Bolton in the FA Cup (a late winner, to boot), Coutinho’s long shots from beyond the box are reminiscent of Bale’s best moments. Bale, however, had more impressive stat lines behind him the two years he won the award (2011 and 2013) in addition to his wonder goals. Coutinho is a thrill to watch, and a great player, but not the Player of the Year.
Alexis Sanchez: Chilean Superhero
As I said, there’s only one other player besides Eden Hazard on both the Top 10 Assists and Top 10 Goals leaderboards: that man is Alexis Sanchez of Arsenal. With 8 assists, equal to Hazard, and 14 goals, Sanchez’s production for the Gunners has been inarguable. What’s more, he’s lifted his team in a way that few other players have. Diego Costa has scored very well for Chelsea, tied with Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero (surprisingly not nominated by the PFA) atop the goal leaderboard with 19, but if we imagine Chelsea without their Spaniard leading the attack, do we see a team without top 4 ambitions? Without title ambitions? Certainly not. And Arsenal without Alexis during the meager months without also Giroud, Ozil, Walcott and Ramsey? Yikes.
And yet, despite Sanchez’s combined production as goalscorer and provider, despite his having lifted Arsenal all but single handedly throughout much of the season, he can’t be called the frontrunner. For a variety of reasons—their difference between one point and three, the brilliance of their scoring, their rarity and concomitant rush of adrenaline—we fetishize goals in this game. Alexis has scored a great deal, almost one every other match, and many of those have been beauties. Still, unless he ends the campaign back in a more prolific goalscoring form, the award is Costa’s to lose. Can the Chilean catch up? Absolutely. But if he finishes the year on 14, maybe 15 goals, and if (/when) Costa and Kane break 20, don’t expect the Arsenal man to get the glory, even if he deserves it.