The 2014-2015 Houston Rockets finished the regular season tied for the second best record in the most brutal conference the NBA has seen in years. Kevin McHale’s squad has one of the top two candidates for league MVP, and enters the playoffs with another superstar just getting healthy. So why aren’t we talking about the Rockets as major title contenders? Why aren’t analysts and fans alike writing in the Rockets and Warriors for a Western Conference Finals showdown between the top two seeds and the two most valuable players? Why is it that despite their record and seeding, few people seem to believe the Rockets to be the second best team the West has to offer?
Let’s start with how the Rockets were able to secure the two seed in the first place, which pretty much comes down to one man: James Harden. Harden leads the league in points scored, minutes played, and free throws, while finishing in the top five in field goals, threes, steals, points per game, player efficiency rating, and value over replacement player. He became the first player ever to hit 200 three-pointers and 700 free throws in a season, illustrating just how dangerous he can be from all areas of the floor. Harden, along with Trevor Ariza, have been the only constants in an ever-changing Houston lineup, with Harden surpassing all expectations regarding his ability to hold a team together in the face of multiple injuries and front office maneuvers.
In spite of all the numbers, there is still plenty of reason to be skeptical regarding just how far Harden can carry this team. The twenty-five-year-old shooting guard has proven himself to be incredibly durable, however, Harden has logged more minutes than any other player in the NBA (with his teammate Ariza coming in in third place), and has taken 170 more free throws than the next closest player. While many of those free throws can be chalked up to Harden’s skill at drawing fouls, the Rockets’ MVP has still absorbed an absurd amount of contact over the long season. While teams like the Spurs have taken their usual route of resting their aging stars in order to be poised for a playoff run, the Rockets have had to scratch and claw their way through the regular season, leaning heavily on their best player to reach the number two seed.
However, James Harden will not be taking the floor alone against the Dallas Mavericks this Saturday. He will have on his side the recently healthy Dwight Howard, who, despite having his media attention far outweigh his playing time over the past few years, is still a premier big man in the league. Even in a reduced role, Howard will be dangerous on the boards and will continue to help bolster Houston’s strong defense. Ariza is no slouch on the defensive end either, while the Rockets’ second unit may be their biggest improvement from last year, when they were bounced in the first round. Led by mid-season acquisitions Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, Houston’s bolstered bench plays an aggressive style of defense, which has helped the Rockets create the third most turnovers and racked up the third most steals in the league.
The Rockets have owned the season series against their in-state first round opponents, winning three of their four meetings, with Howard only on the floor for their most recent victory. Houston also went the entire season without losing more than two games in a row. With this kind of talent and a favorable first-round matchup, there is little reason to doubt that the Rockets will be advancing further than they were able to last year, though the question remains, just how far can they go?
Waiting on the other side of the Mavericks could potentially be the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, who have recently launched into their familiar playoff mode. The Spurs were victorious in both of the recent matchups between these teams, and demonstrated the rare ability to keep James Harden in check. In a series against a Spurs-caliber team, if the Rockets lose two in a row, they won’t have a lowly team to face in order to get back on track. At this stage, there are no breaks in the schedule, and if we have learned anything from the NBA playoffs in recent years, it’s that in order to keep advancing, you need a different player to be the hero in nearly every game. Unfortunately for Houston, one of their top candidates for filling that hero role, Patrick Beverley, is sidelined for the foreseeable future with a wrist injury, adding more pressure to an already over-worked squad.
Regardless of who would await them in the second round, the Rockets will not be able to ride to the conference finals on James Harden’s shoulders. Houston may be the two seed in the West, but with only one game separating them from the sixth-seeded Spurs, reaching the Finals will be no easy task. Even if Harden continues to perform at an elite level and the defense maintains its exceptional play, others will need to step up and don the proverbial beard if the Rockets are to have any hope of hanging a championship banner.