When American sports fans think about great rivalries, they usually think of Yankees/Red Sox, Duke/North Carolina, and the like. But the best rivalry in sports in recent years has been Manchester United vs. Manchester City, a rivalry which will be renewed this Sunday at Old Trafford.
In previous Premier League history, the Manchester Derby hadn’t carried the highest stakes thanks to Manchester United’s consistent superiority to Manchester City. That all changed in 2011, when City scored two goals in second half stoppage time against Queens Park Rangers in the season’s final game to steal the Premier League crown away from United at the last possible moment. After winning their first title in 44 years, City were on the hunt for more silverware, and United looked to prevent them from winning it.
Since the year before that famous title by City, the Premier League has been won exclusively by the two sides from Manchester, illustrating just how high the stakes are between these two teams. And, while it appears that Chelsea is going to break City and United’s four year run of trading the title back and forth, there are still massive stakes to this weekend’s match.
As it stands now, United sit in third place in the Premier League table with 62 points, just one point behind second place Arsenal. City, meanwhile, were in second place for much of the season, until a recent run of poor form saw them drop down to fourth on 61 points. Should there be a winner in this match, that team would guarantee themselves to be above their crosstown rival at least until their next fixture. More importantly, the loser of this match would drop down to fourth place in the table, and be in a position to have to fight Liverpool for the fourth and final Champions League place.
It seemed ridiculous to think that City could be in a position to have to fight for their continued stay in the Champions League, but a terrible three months or so has made it a reality. City have been easy to figure out, as every team they’ve faced as of late has executed the same basic strategy against them. That strategy is to let City have possession for long periods of time, while packing the box to prevent their attacking threats from having the space to get quality shots off. Once the opposing team wins the ball back, they have launched successful counter attacks, taking advantage of City’s tendency to put too many men forward while also preying on a weak City back line.
In City’s last two road fixtures, lowly Burnley and middling Crystal Palace were able to turn that blueprint into wins against Manuel Pellegrini’s squad, which doesn’t inspire confidence heading into a road fixture against a hot United team.
Last season, United fired manager David Moyes before the end of the season, as the team was not performing up to the standards everyone had come to expect. His replacement, Louis van Gaal, wasn’t doing much better until recently, but United remained patient with him and the results have been incredible. In United’s last ten matches, they have won eight, lost once, and drawn once, in a run of form only outdone by Arsenal (9W, 0D, 1 L) over the last ten matches.
Over United’s last five matches, all victories, they have conceded just two goals. One such reason for that defensive success has been the versatility of Daley Blind, who has come from his usual midfield role to play left back in the place of the injured Luke Shaw. Having the number of class players that van Gaal has, and being able to play them in multiple roles without losing productivity has been vital to United’s success as of late, and has been something City have not been able to replicate with their current crop of players.
Given the way these two teams have been trending over the last few months, it would be hard to see United as anything but a heavy favorite here. But, as they say, that’s why they play the games.