There is an interesting constant to being a serious baseball fan. It’s ultimately about very little more than one short word—hope. During a six month long, 162-game regular season, hope is nothing more than potential energy that will be turned into kinetic energy in the course of about 1500 innings of baseball. The best baseball team is the one that best goes through that ringer and can best support the strains it puts on the entire organization. This past offseason the Marlins did the best to build a roster that can go through a 162-game season and come out of it in the position to play meaningful baseball in October. In short, the best season preview is an offseason review.
The Marlins roster went through a lot major changes this offseason, the most notable of which was the team’s commitment to Giancarlo Stanton who signed a 13 year $325 million this offseason. The commitment to Stanton is what predicated a lot of the major changes that the Marlins front office pursued this offseason. Chief among this was an almost complete retooling of the infield.
The Marlins acquired Dee Gordon in a trade with the Dodgers which sent two intriguing versatile prospects (Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes) and a premier left-handed pitching prospect (Andrew Heaney) from Miami to Los Angeles. I understand what Marlins GM Dan Jennings and VP of Baseball of Operations see in Gordon. A speedy middle infielder who stole 64 bases on the back of a breakout season in which he slashed .289/.326/.378 and compiled 3.1 WAR. The worrying thing is that this .704 OPS was based off a .346 BABIP which will probably regress in 2015. Players like Gordon who depend on one tool, in this case speed, as a key part of their game are much more prone to fluctuations in performance from year to year. It worries me that Marlins management are fixated on the speed while ignoring much more important factors like a 5.2% walk rate and a below average according to both DRS and UZR. I think Gordon has upside and is an exciting player, but the Marlins may ultimately regret parting ways with Hernandez, Barnes and Heaney for a Major League average second baseman.
The new-look infield continues with another one tool player Mike Morse. Morse is coming off of winning a World Series with the San Francisco Giants in 2014. He was a major contributor, slugging 16 HR on a .279/.336/.475 triple slash line. The raw power is as impressive as Gordon’s speed given a .196 ISO and a fairly impressive 15.1% homerun-fly ball rate in the very pitcher friendly expanses of AT&T Park. The Morse signing makes sense in that context wherein right-handed power hitters have become so scarce that any guy that slugged .475 last year and has a good track record will garner interest despite his many flaws. This includes a high career strikeout rate of 23% and a low walk rate of 6.1%. Coupled with spotty injury history and questionable defense, even at 1B there may be nearly as many cons as pros to signing Morse. Morse will regardless be a key addition and be very good protection hitting behind Giancarlo Stanton in the order.
My favorite transaction that the Marlins made this offseason was acquiring Martin Prado even if it cost them Nathan Eovaldi. Prado is 31 years-old and already in the decline phase of his career. But his skill set is so intriguing that he could easily be the best everyday player on the team outside of the outfield. The past 3 years, Prado has compiled a very good .289/.339/.424 triple slash line on 108 wRC+ and a 10.5 WAR. While he is not the premier offensive player at the position, his versatility and stellar defensive play has made him one of the most valuable multi-dimensional players in baseball. The Marlins clearly wanted Chase Headley but Prado’s skill set will fit very well as a replacement for Headley and is very much an upgrade over Casey McGehee.
The overhauled infield will clearly be the most important factor in the Marlins success in 2015 especially when coupled with a young promising rotation featuring the recently acquired South Florida native Mat Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Jarrod Cosart and Tom Koehler. The rotation will improve even more when 2013 NL Rookie of the Year, Cuban phenom Jose Fernandez returns from Tommy John surgery around the middle of June.
The Marlins bullpen (featuring closer Steve Cishek, AJ Ramos, Mike Dunn and Bryan Morris) was a strength last year and will continue to be an asset for the team in 2015. The only question left in the bullpen is if the Marlins will try and make Andrew McKirahan into the bullpen’s situational lefty.
All put together the Marlins have one of the best outfields in baseball, a revamped infield, a solid starting rotation and good bullpen. The team has its flaws. Everyday catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria both had subpar 2014 campaigns and have much to prove in 2015. Another major worry is the lack of organizational pitching depth. Offseason trades this sent many of the team’s best young pitching prospects to the Angels, Reds and Yankees.
I would not put a run at the second wild card and an 88 win season past this team. The National League wild card race is wide open. A team with two superstar-level performers and several good complimentary players could easily make a run at the wild card and play deep into October. If the Kansas City Royals proved anything to us, it’s that if you get hot at the right time anything is possible.