Site icon Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 27, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Vibe Check 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Starcourt 2.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Fancy Fascinator 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Evocation 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Inventing Anna 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Hand It Over 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Little Sasser 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 My Spring Sunshine 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 American Splendor 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sweet Trouble 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 High Shot 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Uno Le 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Barbanera 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Flat Stormin 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Performability 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Super Duper Nice 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bango 0 0-1
Bango 0 0-1
1 1 Bango 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Angkor 1.60 2.2 4-1
2 2 Minnesota Ready 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Disco Ball 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Spankster 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Instant Replay 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Jujubee 5.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Kevin’s Strike 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mintastic 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Steelin Bases 10.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Derek’s Law 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Shotgun 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 California Burrito 12.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Rock Solo 12.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Bourbonator 20.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Mazzeo 15.00 10.2 19-1
1 1 Deeply Hidden 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Itsinmyblood 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Best Performer 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Miss Tappy Tone 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Mo Sense 5.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Corkage Fee 3.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 What’s Crackin 15.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Rock Star Doctor 5.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Late Nite Lizzie 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Going Steady 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Rational Theory 3.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Mor Luck 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Trust Fund Philly 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Coaster 10.00 6 11-1
10 10 Chatter 8.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Platinum Midnight 12.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Tempers Fly 12.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Spring Dancer 8.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Lasko Lady 12.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Mendela 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Spurrier 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Chitwood 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Bye Bye Liam 5.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Shakin Loose 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Bettering 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Ready Pursuit 30.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Extra Halo 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Quencio 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Publisher 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 American Promise 10.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Piquant 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Shogun 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Exuberant Mischief 6.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Extradition 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 Our Favorite Son 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Burning Glory 12.00 9.7 18-1
4 4 Consecrated 15.00 10.3 19-1
8 8 Buzz Rocket 12.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Into Thin Air 12.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Miss Hebrides 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Pretty Provocative 5.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Let’s Duet 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Condone 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Take Shape 2.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Broughty Ferry 3.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Cozee Rags 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Off the Lam 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
General Mathis 0 0-1
8 8 Trident Hit 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 General Mathis 4.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Outlier 3.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Vivir Con Alegria (CHI) 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Tapsasional 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Kissalot 12.00 4 7-1
7 7 Roman Centurian 20.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Underdressed 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Exit mobile version