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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 26, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Itwillbefun 0 0-1
Ez Tree Ates 0 0-1
8 8 Gerlin’s Empire 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Itwillbefun 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Wisconsin Gal 4.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Maclean’s Lullaby 3.00 4 8-1
5 5 Carolina Smokeshow 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Good Temper 10.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Tectonic 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Ez Tree Ates 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 My Cherry Pie 12.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 My Bossy Lady 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Low Country Magic 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Classy’n Connected 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Cha Cha Chukka 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Wits and Wagers 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 East Shore 2.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Sterling Luck 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Sacred Saint 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 I Got No Munny 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Zoombie 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Princip 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Fit to Fly 3.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Global Stage 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 G T Five Hundred 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Awesome Aaron 8.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Nabokov 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Perfect Magic 0 0-1
7 7 Perfect Magic 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Spiced Up 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Riddler 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Troubleshooting 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Kraken 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Pretty Capable 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Saving Heart 5.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Zat’s the One 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Golden Goal 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Haskelled 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Lend It Tewmey 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Arthur 4.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Rewire 3.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Merlotti 15.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Tap the Candy 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Redhill 30.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Cloud Without Rein 5.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 El Mic Tiesun 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dark Thirty 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tegwar 10.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Split Success 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Her Holy Name 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Book’em 3.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Very Cosmopolitan 6.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Keyana 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Flash Wear 4.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Global Queen 15.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Bouji Is a Word 30.00 10.1 19-1
11 11 Local Election 12.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Daily Grind 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Winston Wolf 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 First Player 2.50 4.7 9-1
8 8 San Siro 6.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Harleezy 15.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Native Shaman 4.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Gorilla Trek 6.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Mandatory Meeting 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mr McGregor 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Forge in Fire 15.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Sagittarius 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Patch O’Brien 8.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 God of Wine 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Cat On Time 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Mo Rhodes 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Twirling Troillet 12.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Crusading 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Game Keeper 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Andy’s Candy 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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