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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Lil Gin N Class 0 0-1
1 1 Lil Gin N Class 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Palmetto Fury 1.80 2.2 4-1
2 2 Little Sister Sue 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Mila Junes 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Itsablingthing 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Bright Lady Day 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sip’n’ Speed 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Combattante 6.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Mizmalice 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Joyful Josephine 3.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Kim Possible 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Spunderella 3.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Cruz Chica 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Princess Is Olivia 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Sherbet Fountain 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Weather Map 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Bobbie Sox 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 She’s Jersey Tuff 5.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Hurricane Lassie 10.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Kachow 30.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Alamo 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Miss Tappy Tone 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Late Nite Lizzie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Huge Bigly 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pike Place 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Soaring Bird 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Breadman 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Thunderian 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Fowler Blue 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 My Noble Knight 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Caseys Memory 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Countthebrave 0 0-1
8 8 Hoff 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Landing Craft 4.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Brotha Keny 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Tap Em’ Out 10.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Super Smooth 30.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Market Watch 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Moral 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Bermuda Blitz 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Countthebrave 12.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Frosty Blue 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Endrick 6.00 6 11-1
15 15 Coming in Hot 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 D Bigalow 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Invisible 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Lured Away 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Golden Goal 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tempting Lady 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Despo’s Dream 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Streets of Paris 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Miss Escapade 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Stagflation 10.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Sakura Sky 5.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Thunderstrike 15.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Romantic Dancer 8.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Dreamscape 15.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Charlina 20.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Tapwrit Warrior 30.00 9.5 18-1
14 14 Inventing Anna 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hand It Over 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Vibe Check 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Here’s Gracie 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Starcourt 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 War Campaign 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Mr. Wireless 2.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Frosted Departure 1.80 1.7 3-1
1 1 Fair and Square 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Trademark 5.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Howling Time 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Blue Squall 4.50 1 2-1
11 11 Wailua 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Zen Moment 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 La La Rose 20.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Girls Weekend 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Mt. Masada 12.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Brunch Punch 6.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Dot 5.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Je Suis Rapide 30.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Pate 15.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Alter the Stars 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Curlin’s Gesture 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Copper Echo 8.00 2 4-1
10 10 Flat On 3.50 2.9 6-1
9 9 Parkway 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Pancake House 15.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Pursuit of Power 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Curlin Gunner 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Atlantic Dancer 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Rockstar Red 20.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 The Thunderer 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mo Winning 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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