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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 20, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Seven Taylors 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Fear of Union 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Lebombo 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Rosenow 15.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Trap Line 2.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Stradivarian 4.50 6 11-1
6 6 Sound of Victory 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Summer of Mischief 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Mazoku 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Sequin Lady 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Save the Bees 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Forever Home 5.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 A New Peace 4.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Ann Kor 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Coach Clint 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mister Woodford 5.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Ragnow 12.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Xavi 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Blake James 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Borrowed Time 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Cajun Swagger 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beijing Boss 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Alyeska 0 0-1
4 4 Contemplate 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Alyeska 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Truthorconsequence 8.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Stylet 3.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 Amarth 8.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Ranch Life 20.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 In for a Spin 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Ensorcell 12.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Northern Voyage 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Boot Trick 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Geez Eloise 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Suncoast Cowgirl 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Chanisa 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Motown Mika 2.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Business as Usual 15.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Moon Fleet 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Floris 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Ladle 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Byzantine 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Miss Maximus 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Eyes of Gold 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lucy Got Game 2.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Honors Legacy 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Ladan 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Wee Bit O Mischief 3.00 5 9-1
1 1 Tango Zulu 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 My Lil Punky 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Muhimma 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Lady Authentic 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Everloving 10.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Being Myself 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Cocktail Kisses 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Going to the Sun 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Tavria 20.00 4 8-1
2 2 Brave Samantha 20.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Mendela 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Golden Gamble 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 California Sunset 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sassy Walker 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 High Fashion Kate 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Tenenbaum 3.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Krickle 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Scrupulous 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Dark Fury 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Candy Craze 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Gourmet 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Red Hot Jeanie 6.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Edge of Town 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tweetster 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Letstalkaboutme 10.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Amber Cascade 4.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Curl Girl 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Red River Magic 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Playback 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Yes to Champagne 10.00 4 8-1
8 8 Peignoir 10.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Midsummer March 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Starina 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Curlin’s Magic 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bourbon’s Fault 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Crushed It 3.50 1.2 2-1
11 11 Cafe Racer 10.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Atlantic Cat 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Holster 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Hangin in There 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Deputy Mischief 15.00 6.4 12-1
12 12 Varvatos 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Neon Nights 30.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Mobster 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mo El Grande 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Lord Narcisse 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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