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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 23, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Macaw 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Brownstone 4.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Bookie Brent 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Temecula 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Ped d’Oro 8.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Air It Out 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Redeposit 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Furious Anger 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Laughinalltheway 4.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Funny Uncle 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Special Dispatch 3.50 4 8-1
4 4 First Player 3.00 4 8-1
2 2 West Coast Cruiser 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dance Some Mo 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Winston Wolf 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Long Crow 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Knox 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 My Romeo Lima 10.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Joint Venture 3.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Striking Sparks 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 El Prestigio 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Hawija 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Jimmy’s Dailys 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Eighty West 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Jack’s Promise 12.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Perfect Force 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Stiglets 15.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Brie’s in Town 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 U Devil You 8.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Floodlites 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Wants N Needs 0 0-1
3 3 Storms Home 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Wants N Needs 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Knicks Storm 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Gettysburg Address 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Ridgewood Runner 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Hailstorm 3.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Banjo Chris 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Chulligan 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Phenomenal Dream 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Twirling Troillet 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Jon’s Street Band 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Tie Breaker Lennie 5.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Puckster 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Weekend Flame 20.00 5 10-1
3 3 Kall Karl 12.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Vigano 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Plain and Simple 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Show Time 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Pinfire 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Extra Halo 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Dual Monarchy 8.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Merlotti 20.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Tiverton 15.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 East From West 20.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Flat On 2.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Altered Shot 15.00 1 2-1
4 4 Qualy 3.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Laura’s Charm 8.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 All I Want Is You 2.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Panama Red (IRE) 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Sara Mia 15.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Kendal Grace 15.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Krispy Rice 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Pistol 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Charriere 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Speedy Traveler 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Willow Bend 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Nay V Belle 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Culprit 0 0-1
9 9 Bourbon Society 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 In Speight of What 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Carnitine 3.50 4 8-1
10 10 Tornado Road 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 Culprit 3.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Padiddle 8.00 6 11-1
12 12 In Writing 12.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Star Topper 8.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Tapit’s Tale 15.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Haizum 15.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 D’oro Lemon 20.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Stronsino 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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