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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 23, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mitole’s Legacy 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Hayunevano 10.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Malawnia 3.50 2 4-1
7 7 Ladan 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Malu 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 She’s a Saint 8.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Windy Walk 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Curlins Incharge 0 0-1
2 2 Curlins Incharge 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Blood Brother 2.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Coal Boss 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 American Raider 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Sky Key 15.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Strickland 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Vaccinator 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Altered Shot 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Center Stage 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Punchy Girl 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Klimt’s Muse 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Coexist 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Yes Day 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Royal Act 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Cool Quartet 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Shortlist 4.00 4 7-1
4 4 Rackataptap 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Cool Memory 3.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Job Security 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Khozy My Boy 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Dreaming of Smarty 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Ferryboat 10.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Keen On You 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Robin Sage 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Viva La Red 1.80 1.5 3-1
7 7 Neon Icon 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Call Me Toni 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Maria’s Revenge 10.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Mrs. Astor 1.40 SCRATCH
2 2 Janey Creed 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Willow Bend 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Crackalacking 8.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Little Sister Sue 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Je Suis Rapide 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Gormley’s Gabriela 5.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Frango Electrico 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Sparkle of Hope 3.50 5 9-1
3 3 Pioneer Parade 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 York Tavern 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 J T’s Imagination 2.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Interlock Empire 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Dr Kringle 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Golden Plate 15.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Tizzy Indy 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Patrolman 15.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Washington’s Union 5.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Joint Venture 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Beelieve Her 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Loveland 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Candy Lover 4.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Rubia 4.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Stagflation 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Bolt On the Rocks 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 End of Innocence 6.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 I’m Thinking 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Hedge These Bets 30.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Adalene 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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