Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Top Gun Rocket | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Evan On Earth | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lou’s Legacy | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Manfredi | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Title Contender | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pure Force | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Culprit | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | House United | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scylla | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | Scylla | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Victorious | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coppa Girl | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Joke Sisi (CHI) | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zawish | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Secret Statement | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gunesh | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Baby Gundin | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Friendlypersuasion | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Navy Goat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Steel Racer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthem King | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | Cornishman | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mindframe | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elephants Ear | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Anthem King | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mena | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Invigorated | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Higgins Boat | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cartucho | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gorilla Trek | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bee Dancer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Nullify | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denington | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | Best Actor | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Oscar Eclipse | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Quality | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | U. S. Army | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kupuna | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Five Star General | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Not Normal | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Denington | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Collaborate | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Strava | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pats Property | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sentient Jet) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sentient Jet
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Motorious (GB) | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Invasion | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Stash | 20.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Arrest Me Red | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Man Rocket | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bad Beat Brian | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Cogburn | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coppola | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mister Mmmmm | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Filo Di Arianna (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Axthelm | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Eamonn | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mischief Magic (IRE) | 4.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Front Run the Fed | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Our Shot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Panther Island | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Sketch (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Alva Starr | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Olivia Darling | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flying Connection | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spirit Wind | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sterling Silver | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Red Carpet Ready | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vahva | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Three Witches | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Band | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chi Town Lady | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mission of Joy | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 11 | 11 | Coppice (GB) | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Delahaye | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mission of Joy | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ag Bullet | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Not So Close | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Evvie Jets | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cairo Consort | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chili Flag (FR) | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Walkathon | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ascendancy | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Infinite Diamond | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Heavenly Sunday | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seize the Grey | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 2 | 2 | Beeline | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Vlahos | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Nash | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Otto the Conqueror | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carbone | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Top Conor | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Who Dey | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Flame | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Frosty Indulgence | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Guanare | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seize the Grey | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gettysburg Address | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S. Presented By Twinspires) – American Turf S. Presented By Twinspires
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Set | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lagynos | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cugino | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Legend of Time (GB) | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Agate Road | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Formidable Man | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Abrumar | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stay Hot | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Blue Eyed George | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Noted | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Neat | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lord Bullingdon | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trikari | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Can Group | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twirling Point | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Dancing Groom | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Rock’n a Halo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Zozos | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gun Pilot | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Wireless | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hoist the Gold | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Track Mate | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tejano Twist | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Minnesota Ready | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Here Mi Song | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Raise Cain | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Three Technique | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bo Cruz | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Program Trading (GB) | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | Program Trading (GB) | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Never Surprised | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cellist | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Far Bridge | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Integration | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Very Busy | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Webslinger | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Siege of Boston | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anglophile | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Naval Power (GB) | 3.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Never Explain | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catalytic | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 11 | 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Just a Touch | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Track Phantom | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mystik Dan | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Fierceness | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 21 | 21 | Epic Ride | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dornoch | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Stronghold | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Endlessly | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catalytic | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sierra Leone | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Catching Freedom | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Steel | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 19 | 19 | Resilience | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | West Saratoga | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Domestic Product | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Honor Marie | 20.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 20 | 20 | Society Man | 50.00 | 17.1 | 32-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Encino | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 22 | 22 | Mugatu | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jefferson Street | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Discreet Mischief | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Raging Torrent | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | How’s Ur Attitude | 30.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Yellow Card | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baytown Chatterbox | 50.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Magic Grant | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Purple Octopus | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Devilsgotacause | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Pirate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Epic Battle | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Caper’s Hooley | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Agoo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sir Greylind | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | General Partner | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Perfect Prankster | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gun Party | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dive Bomber | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Banned for Life | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Military Cruiser | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Coach Campbell | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Friar Newton | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fracture | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Timeout | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charnico | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | D’oro Unbridled | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Six Kings | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Code Word | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.