Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | U. S. Army | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Can’t Hush This | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pats Property | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Escapologist | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ethereal Road | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Accidental Hero | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Life Is Hard | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlsworth | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | Bradford | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Task | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pearcy Road | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burlsworth | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Crabtree | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Empyreal Shadow | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Turquoise Blue | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Young Jonesboro | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Secret Strategy | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Outlaw Run | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bet All the Gold | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Handsome Herb | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Run Jalen Run | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brownstone | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coach Jimi D | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jester Sang | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wants N Needs | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gould’s Gold | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strait Rush | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Texas Splurge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Strava | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trident Hit | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alejandro | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dash Attack | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tahoe Run | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tapsasional | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Expensive Cut | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mowins | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under the Palms | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | Bonaqua | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tap the Champagne | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Happy Talk | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Who’s Ticket | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Xena | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Defining Joy | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Under the Palms | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vinobello | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shopper’s Revenge | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I’m Wide Awake | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Clear the Air | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Bash | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Juilliard | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Late Nite Radio | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rocking Rocket | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Houdini | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Militant | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | Riyadh Moon | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Militant | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Django | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo El Grande | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Elko County | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Stronsino | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ak Sar Ben Derby | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Daily Grind | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | P J’s Song | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tell ‘Em I’m Comin | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Captivating Boy | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Inexorable | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Media Mogul | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Doctor Nash | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King Russell | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ten Days Later | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Prove Worthy | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Underhill’s Tab | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nip N Tuck | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Elusive Target | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Long Crow | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sun Thunder | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Oaklawn Mile S.) – Oaklawn Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Rising | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Prospector | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frosted Grace | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Last Samurai | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Necker Island | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Denington | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nautical Star | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Logical Myth | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Matron S.) – Matron S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Zeitlos | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Daddysruby | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Macho Girl | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hoosier Philly | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | American Band | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Leeloo | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Traverse | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Spa | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chandana | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Backyard Money | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Fantasy S.) – Fantasy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Mane Squeeze | 0 | 0-1 | ||||
| 12 | 12 | Thorpedo Anna | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Recharge | 30.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | West Omaha | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Mane Squeeze | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ba Dee Yah | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tapit Jenallie | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lemon Muffin | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Candy Aisle | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | All Things Go | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Just My Heels | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midshipman’s Dance | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Where’s My Ring | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Arkansas Derby) – Arkansas Derby
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muth | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| Just Steel | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| Just Steel | 0 | 0-1 | |||
| 7 | 7 | Muth | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Timberlake | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Time for Truth | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mystik Dan | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Informed Patriot | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dimatic | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Just Steel | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Liberal Arts | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Imperial Gun | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Will Take It | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Absinthe | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thestral | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blame Day | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Faith Alone | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wildwood Bye | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Let’s Duet | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Malibu Smart | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Kisses | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Huntleigh | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Esme | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Xylophone | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Marshside Mama | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Key to Success | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.