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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 23, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bandeena 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 A Broken Breeze 2.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Pens Street 1.80 2.1 4-1
6 6 The Reign Song 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Shvere Arbeter 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Jacrodra’s Devil 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Keychain Girl 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Crimson Rose 2.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Lasting Love 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Bengal Tiger 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Tip Top Gal 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Sugar Sugar 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Established 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Patron d’Oro 2.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Paco’s Pico 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Oil Can Knight 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Molto Vivace 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Alpine Thunder 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 King Zog 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Habeas 4.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Mt. Zeror 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 South Coast Route 3.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Reef City 10.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Eagles Landing 20.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 I Got a Guy 20.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Sea Breeze Boy 15.00 4 8-1
6 6 Cryptoholic 6.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Real Thirsty 20.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Barton Strong 12.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Nyquiler 30.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Mandela Effect 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Newpark (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Perfect D 2.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Whisky My God (ARG) 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 High Press 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Afternoon Heat 10.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Elusive Virtue 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Indy’s Star 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Signora Minister 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 She’s a Bit Sassy 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Whistler’s Style 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Hennys Crazy Train 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Tizzy Twister 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Papa Tiger 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Golf Drama 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 New York Dreams (GB) 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Imperial Hornet 5.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Cathedral Light 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Warrens World 4.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Trusty Rusty 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Mentirosa 12.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 All the King’s Men 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 So I’m Told 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Rachel’s Coach 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Sauls Call 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Gypsy Tears 15.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Rifey 3.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Nolongerahobby 20.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Tom Horn 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Dark Mirage S.) – Dark Mirage S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Yuki (CHI) 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Ganadora 1.20 1.4 3-1
2 2 Trouville 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Angel Nadeshiko 20.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Chismosa 5.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Smoothlikebuttah 12.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Gila 10.00 7 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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